0:00 [Music] 0:09 All right, y'all. Welcome to the Scott Horton Show. I'm the director of the Libertarian Institute, editorial director of anti-war.com, and author of Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. Sign up for the podcast feed at scottorton.org or scott hortonshow.com. I've got more than 6,000 interviews in the archive for you there going back to 2003. And follow me on all the video sites and X at Scott Horton Show. Good day, legends, and welcome to uh the Scott Horton Show and also um kind of a overlapping episode with my good friend here, uh Matt Willie, OEM, as he's known, uh the great Australian Afghan war veteran and um uh war analyst, uh expert, especially on the war in Ukraine. So, welcome. That's given me too much credit, but mate, thank you for Thank you for having me. I guess I should say howdy legends. 1:10 Absolutely. There you go. Welcome. Um, so first of all, big announcement. I saw Willie Nelson again last night and it was great. And also Bob Dylan. We're celebrating the 4th of July, man. It was a great day. Hey, Fourth of July. Independence Day. Bad day to be British, but good day to be American. That's right. And uh I don't know how you Aussies feel about it, but you guys never did declare independence, huh? You're still part of the common. Hey, don't bring that up. Don't bring that up. See, I always talk about I'd like to I'd like to do that but then get nuclear weapons. I always say if I was an Australian dictator, it's the only way to do it. Independence man, you need Hbombs. Well, ask him. He'll tell you. Well, the thing is at least Tridium boosted it. Well, I I say this is if Australia is never going to have the latent military power, potential power to fend off our neighbors and if and if Australia like and at the end of the day like I you know I love America but we have a signature on a bit of paper that says to come and defend us. If someone's knocking on the border, I want that 2:11 ultim ultimate deterrence. And I think it's easy for Americans to sit around and go other nations shouldn't have nuclear weapons whilst you've got a massive arsenal of weapons. And if you're a country like Australia that is completely reliant on country like America for actual defense when we have neighbors now still a sea in between us but even Indonesia 200 million people very friendly but you don't know in the future. I mean, of course, China, you know, we're not actually if they land, we always say this in the military. If they land, we're [ __ ] We need to stop them from ever landing if that were to if that were to happen. Couldn't you just throw spiders and stuff at them? Well, to be honest that this you may you may not actually know this but this is one of the military plans in Australia is everything we do not know we're not throwing spiders at them but but everything we do is of course was aimed at fighting the Russians uh you know cold war era Soviet stuff but now of course it's all targeted towards China is if there was to be a military invasion of Australia 3:13 by whoever is once they land which it will be a landing in the north is to basically just to trick them down as they move to the south and the southeast because it's got so far it's like okay land now you've got you know 2,000 miles I'll go of desert good luck and we're just going to have rag tag guerilla groups striking oil tankers like in trucks good luck getting a tank from Darwin to Melbourne like through the middle of [ __ ] it's a difficult drive nonwart time and that's the reason we train look Kansas out there. Yeah. And you Well, you're bringing stuff across oceans to get here and we'll just treat you down on the way. That that is why Australian infantry do long range smaller team uh patrols. That's really you don't really perceive any kind of threat from China beyond just the hypothetical competition from so I've tried to use the word competition instead of threat. Now competition can be taken as threat but it may be 4:16 different from like a military threat. So China is a threat to America because it's competitive with America because they are a competing global power. But does that come with threats? Well, you can interpret a threat from it. But is it are they doing it on purpose to have military action? I don't believe so. in China's history doesn't show that either. So just because something's a threat, it can be good business is not a threat. Coca-Cola releasing a product that competes or undercuts Pepsi is a threat to Coca-Cola or is a threat to Pepsi, but that doesn't mean that it was specifically done to be a threat. And I talk about this with BYD like vehicles, the electric vehicles being cheaper and having some government funding from the Chinese Communist Party, who I'm not a supporter of, but that is a market threat to Tesla. That's not a strategic military action of like that's a declaration of war. No, it's 5:17 not. It's good business. And good business is not, you know, rolling tanks across someone's border. And that's a lot of what America perceive in their 2025 strategic review. A lot of what America perceives as Chinese strategic anti-American action. I say it's good business. America won't export now and work with China on chips and AI and this and that. So then you're saying, well, they're developing their own AI as a threat. They're developing their own AI because that's what you do. If I was a country with a billion people and 40 trillion dollars as a GDP, you know, in purchasing power parity, I'd be doing that too. What do you want? What do you want the Chinese to do? Go back to to like like what what do we expect them to do? The same thing as us is to move forward on stuff and deterrence. So I I try to use the word competition from China. And competition, you know, Mayor Shimemer would would talk about in the tragedy of great power politics, competition can breed then military 6:18 actions and politics by the means clause witzian ideas. It's going to get messy. All right. Well, so the big rub of course is Taiwan. So talk to me all about that. I am in two minds about Taiwan. There's the military aspect of is it uh is it going to be taken militarily or will then the Chinese use strategic patience as they have always used and eventually it will Taiwan will become less and less and less important to America as it already is becoming less important and they'll be able to take it without with much less resistance and friction. um potentially I don't I think I think China is looking over in the war in Europe and going hey this could have really bad effect uh maybe let's just wait let's just wait 50 years and this is one of the one of the things about a country like China is we when I say we I 7:20 mean western democratic states and we've got four-year terms to make [ __ ] happen and if that doesn't well you don't know what's happening like you and I have no idea what our countries are going to look like in four years. Someone could get in and holy New Yorkers right now have had whoever that communist bloody bloke get in. And if you're an investor in New York, you housing investor, your whole life has got flipped upside down where China moves on, you know, I'm not agreeing with where they where their trajectory is. But it's very clear if you're in if you're in the polit bureau, you're probably going to be in 50 years. So they can just keep moving. And and I think Goldstein says that they have clearly built a naval capability to invade Taiwan and they've uh they're well I guess what he was saying was they have from from where they were coming from they didn't have anything like that 20 years ago and that they built up clearly enough I guess he says and then you know he also emphasizes that their merchant marine is all based on 8:22 regulations where all those can be converted to troop ships their merchant navy is unbelievable. America's merchant navy is one of the biggest things which is in absolute tactics. You know when I asked him about it because you know he reads all the trade papers in Chinese and everything like he's a a really brilliant guy. He knows all of this in in great detail. And I I think the way he put it was he didn't see anything specifically in the politics saying that the Pala bureau has decided this is an emergency and we want to move it on Taiwan as soon as possible. But look at the size of that Navy, man. It's for something. Oh, yeah. It's it's something. And and it really depends cuz there's so many ways to do it, too. But it's going to be unbelievably costly. Like, at the end of the day, to take Taiwan militarily speaking from an infantryman's background. If people don't know me, I was a infantryman. I was going to ask you all about that, but we skipped that. We can get We're going to talk about Afghanistan a little bit. Um, you are going to lose massive You're going to lose hundreds of thousands of 9:22 soldiers. You you are just going to and you are going to have cargo ships packed with so because you just need to get people onto the beaches. You need to get people there. You cannot This is one of the biggest reasons I criticize a lot of Ukrainian military actions at the moment in the frame here is a lot of it is focused on strategic victories and having losses on Russia rather than tactical victories. Now, you need both, but Ukraine is so focused on like drones that they've forgotten about the infantrymen. And you're like, "No, at the end of the day, the infantrymen is what sees and hold ground." You no one will ever win a war. We can talk about Iran later. You will never win a war just off strategic strikes to seize and hold and change whatever. Um, Taiwan's the same. You are going to just have to get a million men. You're just going to have to get a million men there. And that's why people refer to it, you've probably heard this term, as the million man swim, is how are you getting just a million men onto Taiwan? And at the end of the day, the way to do that is just keep pushing them forward, but you are going to have cargo 10:24 ships packed with men, 15,000 men, you know, literally standing shoulder-to-shoulder. You're going to have them sink. You're going to have a torpedo or a drone or whatever or a beck hit one of those and you're just going to sink sink a ship with 15,000 men on it. you know, you have a cargo tanker full of guy. Like, it's crazy. Um, and I think that the the Chinese are, you know, I think that they obviously they want Taiwan and I think that they will make a move in some way. I'm just not convinced by the 2027 timeline that people have given. Maybe I'll be proven vastly incorrect, but we've seen we've seen Russia's difficulties crossing a paddic land border into a neighboring country. Right. And this any body of water is the biggest problem with military. Any body of water. Although the Ukrainians are also being resupplied by land from the alliance to their west. Taiwan is 7,000 miles from San Diego, right? And how confident are we realistically 11:25 that America's going to start sinking uh Chinese Navy ships and and and shooting out planes and getting their ships and planes shot down. Yes. So I think we may see you know uh if let's just say it happens tomorrow I think the the Americans may target some drones and some missiles but if you you start sinking ships you know you start kill that's very different very different we don't have a treaty of alliance with Taiwan which America doesn't even recognize as a sovereign nation at all and hasn't for 50 years um any more than we did with Ukraine and you saw what happened with Ukraine. We're perfectly happy to help them get into a fight, but we're not sending 82nd Airborne in there to redeem their men and kick the Russians out. Yeah. And but but even even if there is an agreement, what I say is those agreements are a piece of paper and at the end of the day, states have the they need to look after themselves first. It 12:27 is it is reason of state rather than that. The NATO treaty says if one nation is attacked, the other nations will then decide what to do. So it doesn't say we automatically go to one. And this is where we this is where I guess we begun of when I said if I was the Australian if I was an Australian dictator, I'd want nuclear weapons is because I'd go, well, I want something in case America don't come. You know, like like what happens if if then they don't um pop over the border and start helping us out? Yeah. Well, and this is the problem is, and this is on the face of it, I guess the most obvious critique against my position, which is America retrench and come home from everywhere and forget all of this, is that if we do that, then everybody's going to race to nukes. Iran and Saudi and I think we will. I think North Korea and Japan and everyone is going to race to the A bomb. Do you think that's right? Yeah. See, this is probably the thing I disagreed with with yourself and the 13:27 other gentleman on Lex Freedman is I think the race to nukes is inevitable right now. I think it is. I I think NATO there's frictions in it. It's it's signatures on bits of paper. I don't think it's as strong as people like like at the end of the day, is America going to trade New York for Frankfurt? That's what you're asking for in in a level of war like this? And I just don't I just don't believe so. Um, and I think and I think America I think it's very easy for Americans who have currently the most powerful military in the world and have thousands of deliverable warheads. It's very easy for them to sit back and go no no no no it's easy for you to say that when you've got it. You look over like and being from a country which you know as I as I said I'm not sure if it was in the beginning or to you off the line. I love America. Australia is soft America. I think Australia and America culturally are incredibly close countries. I I think we are actually allied one and two together. Realistically, we fight with 14:28 each other everywhere. We bleed with each other. We follow each other's norms and traditions and whatever. Um there's bits that are better about Australia, bits that are better about America. There's there's there's bits and pieces of of each that are fantastic. Um the opportunity is better in America, but it can also be a bit more brutal if you're not as lucky. Um, but at the end of the day, a country like Australia, we're looking and going, "Shit, at the end of the day, we have the American troops in Darwin. We've got some of the bombers in Darwin, but are they really going to start if if China just said tomorrow, we're [ __ ] Taiwan. We're going for Australia. This is far far more beneficial to us. We're going to go get all of the iron ore in the world and all the gas and all the 26 million people. It's not that many. Small army." And the Americans say, "No, what then?" And and and from a, you know, very um strategically important country, geographically unbelievably important country of Australia, but with very low military, like real military power. 15:30 It concern I if I was in charge right now, I'd be going, "Yeah, I want to be independent completely. I want to be a completely sovereign nation with nuclear weapons." And I think many many other nations that are in similar aspects aka Iran right now will be going Yeah. And and and Ukraine is a perfect example of that. If Ukraine had nukes, Russia would not have have moved over the border. Well, when you mentioned Frankfurt, right, you didn't say Talin or something. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I said a very important Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. So it's not it's not middle middle of Estonia somewhere realist. And I think a lot of those Baltic states should be a bit concerned about some of especially so in other words the the posture of the United States is we're friends with almost everybody and nobody better ever mess with any of our friends or you're going to have to deal with us but don't call our bluff because we might not well that's the thing is well America's tariffing us like you know we spoke about this earlier that at the end of the day it's like well hang on so you you've put a tariff on these products and you've done this and that now I I I 16:31 think for far too long America has not looked after themselves first. I think far too long countries look I'll say Australia but Europe more so um have sucked on the teeth of uh American prosperity and have moved up the chain because of that. Uh but uh at the same time um I am a big one of America has no permanent friends or enemies. they have strategic interest and do they have strategic interest in this or that? Well, that can change very quickly and it can change with the level of uh level of hurt that someone can put on onto your state. So, it it's a it's a scary world and it's a changing world. Uh but as far as nuclear proliferation, I think that has been thrown out the window and I think I think we'll see Ukraine move towards it in the future. If well it's looking like Ukraine will not get into NATO realistically with the comments Trump's makes and realistically I think a lot of European states say 17:33 Ukraine and NATO Ukraine and NATO because they've got Trump saying no they're happy to say well I'll look like the good guy and say yes. Yeah, domestic politics, but they don't really mean it. But they don't really mean it. Like it does, you know, it never come push come to shove. They've actually like has it ever come, hey Macron, you are the deciding vote on this. Yes or no? You know, if it came to that, I'm not confident on that. Um, but Ukraine if Joe Biden himself said, "Come on, man. We're not bringing Ukraine into NATO. We're just saying that we will someday, but we're not going to." But if you're Zilinsky right now, well, you're in the you're in a green military shirt. But if you were Zinski, if you if you were Zilinsky right now and you know NATO's off the table, what do you do? You know, you're not going to have a powerful enough country in time to to compete with the Russians in Russia's going to be there for the next century, too, the next thousand, you know, they're going to continue being there, right? And they likely are going to be a thorn in your side. So if you were Zilinsky right now, regardless what you think of 18:34 him, but if you were him, NATO's off the table, you go, "Well, [ __ ] Got to develop that." Too late though. No, no, they try to make nukes now, the Russians are just going to carve a bomb KF. Well, yes, but I'm saying like the war ends and you're not in NATO, you know, you you've got to have a deterrence there. And we're try get try getting people to give up nuclear weapons now. You know, try getting Iran not to move towards nuclear weapons now and just build bunkers 200 meters under limestone and domite that has five times the the pressure of of high pressure concrete. Like like good luck trying to do that. Um okay. So let's talk all about that. I mean I've been saying for 20 years that this is what's going to happen. You attack them then they're going to race to a nuke. That's the obvious thing because that was the latent threat, right? That was the implicit threat. Yeah. Was we have a breakout capability. Don't push us like we did the North Koreans to just leave the treaty and start making nukes. The problem with that, of course, is 19:34 unlike with North Korea where the United States of America was extremely busy in the early part of 2003, right? Um the uh and and four. Um, with Iran, the problem is if we bomb them and they race to make nukes, we can keep bombing them. And this was the whole problem with them racing to make nukes in the first place. We'll bomb you before you get one. So to me, it was the perfect standoff. They have a latent deterrent. We're telling them, don't go further than that. And they're saying, we're not going further than that, and so let's just not squabble. But now we've gone ahead and crossed the line. So, you're just virtually certain hardliners are going to win this fight. The nuclear program is going to go deeper underground and the the purity of uranium 235 is going to go up and even atomic weapons. In my in my opinion, it makes sense. They kicked us the inspectors out. They haven't withdrawn from the treaty yet or announced that they're withdrawing from the treaty. I I think too uh I think that we're going to see a lot of countries question 20:35 some of the inspectors as well. Um, you know, I've spoken to some some dear friends of mine who who have raised the well, how how is the MSAD so informed here? How do we know that some inspectors aren't relaying information here? You are you are getting people into your most your most important sites. Yep. From the same thing they did in Iraq, too. They put so many CIA guys in the UN inspection team that Hussein was like, "Hey, this isn't fair." And stop cooperating with the inspection team. And then they go, "Aha, you won't cooperate with the inspection." We I I once the can of worms has been open, once the genie's out of the bottle, it's not going back in. And see, the the other bit in this is though, I'm then not saying that therefore we step into a more chaotic world. There's also the idea of that we step into actually a little bit more peace because it's a gun to everyone's head. Have nuclear weapons caused more or less harm in the world than if we didn't have them? Okay. But why though? Because 21:37 if it's clear that they're breaking out, then wouldn't we just expect a full scale carpet bombing campaign or whatever? Trump's already proven that bluff call. We're going to bomb whatever you're doing. We're not going to let you do it. You'd send in the 82nd airborne if you had to. Right. It will depend. It will depend on the pressure on the back end on on Iran of do they move closer to Pakistan? Do they move closer to China? How does that go? At the end of the day, I you know, strate may maybe it's the inframan and me coming through. I think strategic bombing is massively massively overestimated in its capabilities. That okay, for I I tell a lot of people, hold your horses on how much damage there actually is to Fordau. Okay, it's under a mountain. People talk about concrete. to talk about the GBU57 and go it's 80 m or 60 m of high pressure concrete penetration. Yes, high pressure concrete is 5,000 PSI. Limestone in that 22:39 mountain range is 20 to 25,000. The dolomite can be up to 35,000. And unlike concrete that is concrete is a foreign body you're putting in the ground and all the pressure can be moved through it, there's massive slabs of concret of stone in that that can disperse a lot of the uh pressure and impact right away. Mh. And if it at the end of the day, whether it is a£30,000 bunker buster or a bullet, things follow the path of least resistance. Now, of course, you've got the momentum of £30,000 moving through, but if you if it has a path that is least resistance, it will start moving in the ground and you are asking for if you have a bunker and 80 m down, you're a few degrees off, you could miss. Now, I think there's been a lot of damage to Fordo. I don't think it's destroyed. I I really really doubt that it is completely destroyed. I there's going to be blast doors. There's all of this. And at the end of the day, even if it is, okay, if it's destroyed, what are you going to do next? Well, we know 23:39 exactly the capability of that weapon system now. We know exactly how deep it can go. So, okay, make it 50 m deeper than that or, you know, 150 ft deeper. And that is always the problem. and strategic bombing. Well, if strategic bombing was going to just win wars and completely, you know, everything's gone. Why did American ground forces have to be in Iraq? Why did Russia have to go into Ukraine? I think we overestimate the ability for strategic campaign. You cannot seize and hold ground without guys on the ground. And this has always been my biggest concern. The day one of of Iran was Israel launched a war of which they cannot win. They can't. They do not have the capability to drop those bombs. It's not It's not, you know, America can't give them the bomb because they don't have the bombers to do it. You started something of which, you know, America has to do. And if America doesn't step in, you're [ __ ] America's running incredibly low on air defense missiles because of this. Unbelievably low, scarily low, which is 24:40 a point of where the [ __ ] have your trillions of dollars been going over the past decades? How is all of Europe and all of America and Australia out of artillery, missiles, interceptors, all of this and amongst us all, we have paid trillions and trillions of dollars and we don't have [ __ ] 155 shells. Where the where the [ __ ] has that gone? Um, that should be a big qu especially for Yanks like like the amount that you guys pay the amount that you're meant to have. And these are limited wars. Iran, Israel, small war. Really, it took place over 12 days. Ukraine, Russia, [ __ ] small war comparatively. You haven't got India and China and Russia and Australia and all of Europe and all everyone involved firing [ __ ] We would have been out in the day. Um if China knew the actual the actual um capacity of our munitions, they would have gone against their history and [ __ ] invaded us cuz they would have gone [ __ ] 3 days you're out of [ __ ] Who cares? Walk through. I saw a thing where they have a factory automated making cruise missiles where we still make our tomahawks by hand or whatever at Lockheed. They have 25:42 automated factory just sh out 30 a day or whatever. Oh mate, the this the crux of where I'm at is unless there is a friendly regime change, a friendly to Israel regime change in Iran, you're going to go down the same path at an increased pace. And this is day one of what I've said is where this ends up where this ends up is American forces there. That's where it ends up because Israel doesn't have the capacity to do it. Like Israel does not have expeditionary capacity of that. The argument being now that you've bombed them, they're going to break out for a nuke. So you're going to have to keep bombing them. But that's not going to work. So then you're going to need a regime change and the only way to do that is to put the very clear like like people kill the Ayatollah with a wellplaced shot. They claim Trump said I know where you live. And how well does decapitation actually work in states? This is this is the one this is the one man principle or that we think we people like to believe that that Russia is 26:42 Putin. Everyone else everyone else is everyone else in Russia. Now you got to kill every Shiite cleric in the country or he's going to claim to be the kill you kill Putin and you end up with Medvidev. But you blow up. Now you got to blow up all the aluminum smelters because otherwise they can just make more centrifuges. And what we have seen is what what I think Israel relied on and and I I don't know who did the analysis on this was I think they relied on we're going to bomb them. The civilians will see their chance to take over the nation and then they will have an internal overthrow. Now I want the best for the Iranian civilians. I want those people to live in a prosperous democratic however they want. I want them to have the country how they want. I don't want girls having to dress a certain way. I don't want the the morality police. I I don't want I want the best for those people there. For the 92 million people that live there, I want the absolute best for them. And I want the best for people living in Tel Aviv as well. And at the end of the day, 27:43 that's what they're relying on. What does it look like? It looks like a lot of civilians have rallied around the current regime. That's what it looks like. Of course, that's what always happens. It's called the rally around the flag effect. But that's what I mean is that's what you that's what you end up with. Um and and this is where I've been, you know, saying about either Russian or Ukrainian, you know, drone strikes and whatever into cities going, "This doesn't it demoralizes people, but it rallies around their flag, too." The same thing happened. You you can hear um Churchill talk about it with with bombing the cities that it doesn't really work. Uh I know we've got significantly better stuff now, but but in the day, it actually rallies the civilians around it. And this is why things like false flags can work really really well is it rallies people around a cause and you'll go from there. And y that's happened in Iranian history too. When Saddam Hussein invaded it helped to solidify support for the Ayatollah's new regime back in 1980. So I think the genies out of the bottle nuclear weapons in my opinion. I think Ukraine was actually the first example 28:40 of that. Um, I know Ukraine never had well they had physical nuclear weapons but not the capability to fire and target and blah blah blah that everyone gets you know everyone loves to get that wrong. If we had our no you had someone else's nukes that were grandfathered into your state but not the capacity to do it but but let let's take that thought process. Let's take Ukraine had their own nuclear arsenal. Russia would not have crossed the border in my opinion. Except that No, they would have crossed the border sooner is all they would have just that was the line. They're never going to tolerate. No, no, no, but no, no. I mean, imagine if imagine if when the Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine was left with its own sovereign nuclear capability. Yeah. Yeah. Before all this, then it wouldn't have happened. And this is where we'll see all these states rush to these weapons. In my in my opinion, that's we'll see. Now, rush doesn't mean a year. It could mean decades. But and it doesn't mean that they you know even Ma Tong who was like the craziest murderer who ever lived never used Adam bombs. Yeah. Well well 29:42 this is an argument and you you'll hear the the Russian elites talk about this. Who's actually used one and what did you use what did you actually use that against too? What did you actually target? Did you target a fleet in the ocean? No. Like you you targeted a Christian city. Now the argument is well less people actually died than a military operation and that whatever but that's it's comparing apples and oranges. Well, it's worth bringing up too cuz this comes up all the time. They say millions of American soldiers would have died in the thing. Well, that's not what the military said at the time. They said at the time that they expected 50,000 American soldiers to die. So now you're telling me you killed 200,000 civilians in exchange for 50,000 soldiers when you're assuming of course the premise of unconditional surrender and the necessity of invading the home island when you've already completely decimated their navy and air force and have total air dominance over their country and the 30:42 rest already firebombing their cities and all of the rest of There's actually another point I wanted to make in that. But if you assume a bunch of idiot premises, like every American would have died trying to invade Japan, so we had to nuke him cuz I learned that in junior high school, then yeah, great argument. I guess the Democrats can kill whoever they want them in the loot. I know. Well, well, look, I am this the thing is with nuclear weapons, I'm a bit of a fan of nuclear weapons. I think it has actually given us a lot more peace that nuclear weapons will probably be the end of humanity, too. But at the end of the day, we haven't had a great weren't great until then though. We haven't had a great state war until that point. Fantastic. But we have That's a book right there. Hotter than the sun. Time to abolish nuclear weapons. All my interviews about nukes over the years. But the point being that Yeah. It's the ultimate bluff. Yeah. But boy, once you call it, once you call it, we're [ __ ] But but the thing is too, we've not had a great state war since. And if Russia went into Ukraine and wasn't a nuclear power, we would have bombed Moscow. 31:42 that we would have had troops everywhere. Like at the end of the day, has it caused less human suffering that we have weapons that can wipe out states? Yes. It's it's a hard one, but in the blink of an eye since the Second World War, yes, but the thing is which is not necessarily like a longitudinal study, right? It's a tiny tiny um part of of humanity and a lot of people like to think the world started at the end of the Second World War and that's that's the history. Um but the other thing is the genie out of the bottle and and go back to Iran for a second is we talk about those bunker busters you know okay they can destroy something 80 meters under the earth okay what if it's half a k what what if it's half a kilometer what what if it's a couple hundred meters well the option you've got then is a nuclear penetrator once you pull the genie out of the bag of using the tactical nuclear weapons don't exist nuclear weapons used in a tactical sense too all nuclear weapons are strategic everything is strategic because It's interpreted in a strategic way whether it is half a kiloton or 200 32:42 megat tons. It is strategic in nature but it can be used on the battlefield or it can be used in a strategic deterrence. This came out a couple weeks ago before America bombed. There was a story uh that said that the White House has decided that a nuclear bunker buster will not be necessary because they think that their 30,000 lb bombs can do it. And then the White House denied that and said, "No, in fact, all options remain on the table." In other words, including a nuclear first strike against a non-uclear weapon. But, but if they if if then it comes to the point of, "Okay, the only way to destroy this bunker is a nuclear penetrator and do we let that genie out of the bag?" Okay. But wait, let me ask you, cuz you're an infantry guy and you know the answer to this. Can't you just drop the 82nd Airborne in there that go and destroy it with grenades or whatever? No. No. Why not surround them with A10s to keep the bad guys away? At the end of the day, the the amount of 33:43 uh to do these long range missions. Well, look, America may Okay, let let's talk about for and I did a whole a whole 40-minute breakdown with some special forces guys about Foraux. when Israel said that we are considering a commando raid on foot. Mhm. I spoke to some of my friends who are both current operational and and expec the guys who would do this you know tier one guys and they basically said plausible [ __ ] unlikely one the terrain is unbelievable. There's still air defense and air superiority is very different when you're talking F-16 and F-35 compared to A10 and choppers, right? Yes. Iran's S300s were very very degraded. Their man pads as far as man portable air defense rocket shoulder fired things massive amount of them. At the end of the day, that sort of equipment, you're going to start hitting choppers, you're going to start hitting A10s, 34:43 you're going to be in a world of hurt. You're going to have it's going to be very costly. Is it plausible from them? Yes, it is plausible, but you're going into a very, very difficult terrain. And what they said is it's going to be incredibly costly. You're going to lose a lot of people. So, you drop in the 82nd. Okay, they're under canopy. How much are you taking in under canopy? [ __ ] all. In the reality of things, really little. You're jumping in maybe at best with 50 kg, you know, 150 lb or something of equipment. 100 lb of equipment. Really, that's nothing. You're going into a nuclear facility where you might have a I don't know 50 ton door on the front of it. It might be more. It might be a 100 ton door. What do you do then? You're not cutting through that with a torch. You're not blowing it. Okay. Then you get the door open. You have then 150 m hallway, 300 ft hallway with a machine gun at the end of it. How are we taking that out? They they know everything. They know the whole facility. We think we know the facility. But if you step in a hallway, and I mean a corridor in a nuclear facility 100 m long, and there's machine 35:45 guns at the end of it, and and what they what they basically said is it would be doable, but it would be so costly. It would be so [ __ ] unpopular. They're going to see you coming. They're going to see you leaving. You're going to be in this facility. But isn't all that a price that Israel is willing to pay with American soldiers lives? Well, I don't think America would do it. I I at the end of the day, having Well, I I I don't know. You're saying they'd drop a nuke first? I think they'd drop a nuclear penetrator first. Uh, and and claim that any radioactivity from it was from busting the facility. Oh, they just claim it was a 30,000 lb penetrator, but this is this is a lot of a lot of what I do is what would I do in that situation? My hands are tied. I have to destroy this facility. I'll [ __ ] lie. Let's stop and go back and talk about your service. Yeah. Um, when did you join the Australian Army? I joined the Australian Army straight out of high school. So I had two days between high school and the army uh 2014. Okay. 36:45 Uh I'm a lot younger than I look. I've just weathered from the infantry. I was going to say, yeah, infantry and chemotherapy will weather you. Um anyway, uh yeah, I join joined the infantry. Um people always ask why. I don't know. I just wanted to join the military. Ever since I was born, I just wanted to join the army. Um, I was I was I I was born in the era of the, you know, American Australian army on TV and this and that and propaganda campaigns and it [ __ ] got me. Um, and it still would get me like like don't get don't get me wrong, if someone crossed our border, I would still sign back up. Um, even if I even if I was like this is a [ __ ] war, I'd be doing it for the boys around me. uh that that is a big difference in the forces uh from the wars previous to the wars current is people's um I guess uh how um how they are fighting for the state versus for their friends and this is a big difference of back in the day it was I'm doing this for America I'm doing and I think a lot of soldiers now I'm like well I'm doing it because the other boys around me I don't want them to die I 37:46 don't want me not to be there and this happens when they structured the military brigades and whatever in that way on purpose so you're with the same few guys for years. Yeah. Yeah. To a degree to become blood brothers. So it doesn't matter where they drop you. They're fighting for each other. Well, those of you who listen to me tell you to listen to Mike Swanson at Wall Street Window and Tim Fry at Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Inc. have bought a bunch of gold must be doing great right now and should probably donate to the Libertarian Institute. Roberts and Roberts is the best. It's a matter of trust. There's no flashy gimmicks, risky schemes, or bait and switch scams here. Robertson Roberts is here to help you protect your wealth. Any portfolio ought to have a solid percentage in metals. For us Austrian school types, even more. Go to Robertson Roberts Brokerage, Inc. at rrbi.co to protect yourself from monetary inflation. That's rrbi.co. Hey y'all. Libertasbella.com is where you get Scott Horton Show and Libertarian Institute shirts, 38:47 sweatshirts, mugs, and stickers and things, including the great top lobsters designs as well. See, that way it says on your shirt why you're so smart. Libertasbella from the same great folks who bring you ammo.com for all your ammunition needs, too. That's libertasbella.com. Hey y'all. I've been working on the audio book of my new book, Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. I've now finished and posted part three of the audio book to my Substack and Patreon at scotterortonshow.com and patreon.com/scott Hortonshow. So, that finishes all of George HW Bush and Bill Clinton. I know there's still a long way to go, but just these first two chapters are almost 10 hours of audio to get you started. I promise I'm doing the rest as fast as I can. Get the audio book of Provoked first. Subscribe at scottortonshow.com or patreon.com/scottortonow. So then I yeah I joined the military and and I was like well I'm joining the military. I want to be in the infantry. 39:48 You know at the end of the day no kid plays toy soldiers and is a truck driver. Um you know transport you know you want to be a guy at the front. That's what you want to do. Um originally I wanted to go direct entry special forces. So, how old are you again? At this point, I was uh when I first signed up, I would have been 17, but when I actually joined, I am 29 now. 29 now. Um, but when I actually joined, I would have been just 18. Okay. Um, so I think high school works a little bit different here with age. So, we're we're high school for six years and we end at 18. Um, and yeah, I I joined right out of school. I had two days. I still hung over from the end of school party and at at basic training like, "Holy [ __ ] what the [ __ ] going on?" My head's shaved and I'm running around and someone's yelling at me. Some, you know, 30-year-old with a chest full of medals is yelling, "What the fuck?" Um, but yeah, I join joined up, went infantry. I wanted to go direct entry special forces, but we have two special forces really in Australia or two that you know people are more aware 40:49 of. and one you cannot direct entry into and then the other one you can but it's basically for either if you've served previously. So I was like well I'll go infantry and then I'll go that route and uh I'm [ __ ] glad I didn't go that route cuz I would have failed straight away out of school. Um no wonder it's for guys who have served previously. um and yeah went through the training and then you know what 7 8 months later I'm I'm in the infantry um in a in a brigade and hanging out a deployed Afghan uh maybe 12 or 18 months following that. So, you know, the the Australian infantry, uh, and I'm biased, of course, but I I of all the infantry I've worked with in the world, uh, I believe that we are probably the highest trained, but for a purp because we don't have the numbers, we need to have very, very trained guys because the end of the day, we're dealing with [ __ ] very small numbers. It's got to be like, hey, this you better know what you're [ __ ] doing because and and the way Australians have fought previously and will have to fight is in a guerilla 41:50 style warfare. So conventional warfare, you know, we're nothing on the Americans or the Brit or even the Brits, maybe the Brits, but in a guerilla sense because that is the only way to fight. And that's why Australians were so capable in a country like Vietnam uh or even Afghanistan was well the way we train because we don't train for Vietnam or train for Afghan. We we train to fight and defend Australia. That's what we train for is, as I explained earlier, hey, we're going to have to split off into groups of four or eight and work completely independently and be striking a fuel truck here and fuel truck there and then attit them as they come. That's how it's going to have to work. We're not going to be able to man the [ __ ] borders and go for it. Um, so we go through a fair like you're not actually seen as a proficient uh soldier um until minimum of 18 months until you'd actually be signed off as proficient just as a basic infantryman. And that's really where you start before you start specializing. And then I had a specialty in uh heavy weapons and um 42:51 combat tactical medicine. Um and that that yeah then I deployed overseas onto operation high road and I was a commander of um of the armored vehicles and uh mobility there um moving around VIPs and where in Afghanistan were you? So I was just outside of Kabul and we managed so what what basically what I was doing was I was armored movement. So if someone needed to [ __ ] go somewhere or we needed someone, we would work out where how you're getting there, what the risk is, what's going on or move you there. Whether it is a VIP coming um at one point we um were going to move and ended up getting called off last minute for something, but we we're going to move General Mattis around the country at the point at the time. Um I ended up getting called off I believe because there was multiple convoys put on call for it and only one got him. Something like that in case there was a leak somewhere. I I think that's how it worked. Um but we'd move people like that. We'd move prime ministers or whoever came or and would also provide um you know fire support if 43:53 if there was like down in the uh Afghan National Army Academy where they were training. If we had guys going down there to train them at the end of the day they're going down there with a rifle. We would then come down there with a vehicle with heavier weapons in case something went wrong. M um but again back to like you know the the raid on Ford you get an idea in the infantry of what can you actually take in very very little you know um you know at the end day we're going down there in a 15 ton vehicle but we still have very limited equipment it's not like our base like you know at the end of the day if things go really wrong what we want to do is move back into the Hesco barriers and fight from there because we've got all this ammo all that even with a 15 ton vehicle we don't have that many rounds really like you know you're firing a I forgot what the Americans call it. M240, I think you you call it, but our 762 machine gun. Um, you you start chewing through rounds pretty [ __ ] quick. You know, you're going to chew through that. Um, you know, you if you get really in the [ __ ] you want to be moving back into solid protection. Um, so it gives you an idea, a sense in 44:56 the infantry of what you can and what you can't really achieve. Um, and these raids and stuff by you see the special forces and stuff in Afghan and wherever, you're like, "Yeah, but that's not against a facility like that." Like even, you know, Bin Laden, you're like, "Yeah, but it's against a [ __ ] small compound. It's not in this facility, you know, against incredibly trained guys." Um, so yeah, I guess to go back, yeah, I was in Afghan for 8 months and a couple of weeks around. Um, I was young. I was 20, 21. I turned 21 uh about halfway through the tour. Um and yeah, leading around um convoys in navigation and whatever else around, working with um mainly um the British, the Dutch, the Americans, a lot of America, Australian America do everything together. Um I was um lead nav for a couple of American marine bits and pieces. [ __ ] um no one had AAA batteries for Garmins and I was the only one with it. So, I was like, next thing I'm [ __ ] navigating and I'm like, I don't know what's going 45:59 on. Like, like I'm I'm at the front with like their O like their their officer in command and I'm like that way, I guess. Like, but um yeah, the Aussies and the Yanks, you know, it is as close as you can get. Yeah, that I I've read that a lot of times or and heard that from guys who fought in Afghanistan. They had no respect for any of the Europeans. But the Aussies, they like to brawl. If we actually need to go out there and fight, we bring Oh, the Aussies step into anything for America, which I'm a bit against too because it should be like, hang on, we still need to be independent and not just be, you know, follow around holding America. We're not supposed to be there in the first place, so you're not supposed to be like tagging along either. It's it's had a big shift in how people see it with with these tariffs that have come through. Now I Wait, wait, before you talk about that, are you friends with Braden Chapman and my other Australian veteran friends? Uh, no. I I don't I don't know him. I don't I don't believe I may I may know his face. There's a bunch of great There's not many of us. Uh, yeah. And some of them are whistleblowers. Yeah. 46:59 You know, and I guess one great whistleblower is sitting in prison right now for telling the truth, right? Yeah. You want to talk about that story? You know a bit about that? Uh, look, uh, I won't out of respect for knowing some of the bits and pieces of of people that are going through some court stuff at the moment and I wouldn't want to trip up anything for them to absolutely fair. Um because at the end of the day, this could be used for that. Um but there's a lot of uh gray area and fog around some of the occurrences that have that have occurred in the in there's some outright murders, too. Well, it it's it you need to with all of it take case by case basis. That's probably the biggest thing. Sure. um a and and to be case by case on this and and and at the end of the day I think it needs to go through the courts as as fair and just and beyond reasonable doubt of stuff and they need to still look at too around okay if if it is someone's word who is this person do 48:00 they have incentive to lie do they have incentive to do this or that um so as long as it's like this is my whole thing is I just want it to go through its proper process and I want the law to be seen to as the law. I what I don't want is I don't want them trying to um uh either clear it up because hey, this looks bad for the state. No. No. If it looks bad for the state, it looks bad on the army, it looks bad on this, but it was done. Hey, [ __ ] do it cuz we we're not about that. That's ridiculous. Um, but what I also don't want is them trying to, hey, you know, we're a really progressive government, blah, blah, blah. [ __ ] the army. Hey, these these this this this white dude who's 6'4 and musly and likes to do this. He he shot some dude and, you know, it could be interpreted this way. So, you know, we're going to we're going to pin this on them and, you know, push down the army and push Is that what you think is happening there, though? It seemed like the only 49:00 guy they went after was the hero who told the truth about the other guys murdering guys. See, this is where I I want because there's multiple things in the pipeline at the moment. Um, and there's a lot around. So, again, once you open that um can of worms, there's a lot cuz it's it's if you're whistleblowing, you're whistleblowing on a lot too. Um, and yeah, like you're whistleblowing on case by case, too. So it is a very difficult situation there. Um I know people caught up in it and the thing is there's still legal process continuing at this point. Um but yeah I just all I hope is that to the lesser of the law and beyond reasonable doubt is seen to um and that doesn't mean that two things can't be wrong also and this is probably a big one that I think people just because someone's guilty doesn't mean someone's innocent either. So if a crime has been committed, that crime has been committed. But if you've also committed a crime um on on the back end of 50:01 something around um say um classified information or whatever and you haven't followed correct procedure with this and you can't prove that you have tried to do the correct procedure as well, then it's two wrongs don't make a right in that. Um, so there's so much fog around this and trust me I'm as involved in a lot of the um discussion as a lot you know I wasn't in the units of course um and even then it's like oh [ __ ] this is a [ __ ] nightmare to pick through and what's actually going on um so it's a hard one it it it is and but we're seeing the same thing happen now with the Brits and you'll see it happen with the Yanks of people a decade on saying, "Hey, I'm not really comfortable with what happened there." And blowing the whistle now. And it's very difficult a decade on to then look back at what actually happened. What actually happened here? Because I know in some of the cases at the moment there's there's 51:01 multiple up here cuz it's open. Once you've opened that can of worms, it's [ __ ] open. They're looking into everything. And I know guys were like, "Well, that that's not how it happened." But it's my vers my word versus theirs. and their word is some basically illiterate Afghan farmer whose son we shot because he had a weapon that but but it's my word versus theirs and this is very difficult at this point. Um well some of the stuff's on video. Yeah. Well the but some of the stuff you have multiple sort of like he took this prisoner around the corner took him into the room and then came back and goes oh yeah he didn't make it. Yeah cuz you murdered him. Well, we'd have to go through the videos case by case that at the end of the day we'd have to go through videos case by case the complete situation around it and then overlay what is what is the situation here? What is 20 minutes before the GoPro and 20 minutes after the GoPro? What reporting got put in place as well at the time? And the 52:04 thing the the biggest thing that [ __ ] pisses me off with the with the problems in Australia uh the the cases going through at the moment is all of the officers have cleaned their hands with it. Sure. No. Hang on. Hang on. Hang on. If you're a [ __ ] if if you are the officer here and one of your we call them diggers like a private soldier and they're [ __ ] you are you are still responsible for that. And if you haven't then pulled this up and know that this is happening cuz the officers are gone. We didn't know what's happening. How [ __ ] And you know they're putting through oh none of us can be charged and this and that and you're like hang on this is [ __ ] [ __ ] Um and and as what what has happened is now like like a lot of police I guess feel is when you have something that's happened that is lawful. So say say when a cop shoots someone and it is lawful and then they get dragged through the media. What you get is cops not willing to discharge their firearm and cops who are not willing to work anymore and they get away with a lot more crimes against people than they get falsely 53:05 punished for. Look, Australian American policing is is vastly different. I will say um but what we ours are trained by the shin bet. Now what we also what we also can't have is guys who won't discharge their firearm when they need to as well. Um, and it needs we just all I want is due process and I want everyone to have their day in court, their say and to follow beyond reasonable doubt with everything. And if and people need to be also comfortable to whistleblow. They have to be comfortable to go and stand up and go hey and also in the the case where someone whistlebl is also all the all his senior command because I was a corporal when I left the military. If I have a problem, if I see one of my guys do something and I go, "Look, I need to speak to my sergeant." One up and he says no. Then I go to a warrant officer. He says no. I keep working up the [ __ ] chain until I get to the chief of [ __ ] defense. 54:05 And this is the thing is in my opinion, you every single person who has said no to him, they need they need a burn. That's [ __ ] If if one of my guys commits a crime, a serious crime, you know, um that's outside of civilian law, and I go to my sergeant and he pushes it through the rug, and then I go up, that sergeant should be in the [ __ ] [ __ ] too. Um and there's there is a that's that's what people need to feel comfortable to do. People need to be comfortable to stand up and speak up, too, even if it's against um what you know might be a boy club at the time. Yeah. And you're right that it should not be political at all. It's supposed to be, you know, strict rule of law under the military uniform code of justice. Yeah. We also need to apply that military justice. We we need to apply that everywhere too. And this has been one of my big bits around Russia Ukraine is the amount of war crimes getting committed is unfucking believable. Unbelievable of 55:06 what is actually occurring. And what what I say is we but we only are willing to say that the Russians are committing war crimes. Now are the Russians committing war crimes? Yes. There's footage everywhere of it. You know, absolutely. Of using K51 grenades of uh shooting soldiers who have surrendered. What's a K51 grenade? K51 grenade is basically it's a chloropicrine right control grenade tear gas I guess. Um chloropicrine is the active agent in it. Now, this is it's banned on the Chemical Warfare Convention. And people will say, and I know people in the comments go, "But it's only right." I don't give a [ __ ] if it's right control or not. I don't give a [ __ ] what it is. It is clearly outlined in the Chemical Warfare Convention that you cannot use this in warfare. You cannot use it. And clear as day using it's why do things get used? Because it [ __ ] works. What they do is they drop this in a in a trench line that goes underground. It goes underground. Guys run out. They strike him with an FPV. war crime can't do it. But you know what? I've see just as much footage of Ukrainians using K-51 grenades. And what 56:08 I say is Ukraine is our ally. In the West, they are we are supplying all of their munitions. We're supplying salaries. We're supplying all this. They are an ally. You know, at the end of the day, like I said, officers have to take responsibility for their guys. We also have to take responsibility for our allies. And if if America see Australia committing war crimes, I'd hope that they would pull us up and vice versa. And we need to go, hey, you are fighting with our weapons on our dollar. We need to also abide by the the laws of armed conflict. And a Russian soldier on his hands and knees surrendering to a drone unarmed and wounded and you hit him with a drone is a war crime. And I can hear Spastics right now going, "Oh, but you can't take prisoners with drones. Bullshit." There is multiple footage of taking prisoners with drones. Ukraine also has the I want to live program which is aimed at Russian forces coming forward under drone. So you have not only proven slow down and explain how that works, how someone can surrender to a drone. I've read it too, but just explain. Well, it of course it's it's very case 57:10 by case basis of where you are. Um, but if you are unarmed or you are hold the combat, you are out of combat due to wounds and you stick your hands up, a drone could guide you back to a a line back to, you know, if you're a Russian soldier, back to a Ukrainian line and surrender. Now, I've seen footage of that happen. It it's it's fair fairly common, you know, reasonably, but but the thing is once you've set the precedent that that actually can be done, okay, we have seen that can be done. Now, if someone surrenders and you hit them with the [ __ ] lethal drone, you can go, "Well, hang on, hang on. There's case law that you can do this." Now, I'm not saying you can you can change synonymous with Russia or Ukraine with these drone targeting, but in my opinion, the videos I see of hitting most most videos I see of un oh, sorry, of unarmed surrendering soldiers getting hit by drones is Russians getting hit with them. Ukrainian drone operators are killing a hell of a lot of Russian surrendering soldiers. Hell of a lot. Are the Russians doing it, too? Yes, I've definitely seen footage of it, but I see a lot more footage the other way. Maybe 58:12 because the Russians are on offensive actions, we see more offensive actions. Therefore, you'll get more footage of it. Okay. But but it also is a crime and we need to go well our partners, we also need to we also need to have enforce the laws of conflict on that. It's it how do we expect someone to do it? How do we expect a country to go to the letter of the law if we won't do it ourselves? And and I I find that disgusting. I And this is the the the reason the West is getting more and more hated around the world is hypocrisy. The biggest threat to the west in the world is hypocrisy because other nations are going hang on but you don't operate like this. We don't want to be friends with you. We don't want to you know now that you know the the fantastically more and more people around the world are getting lifted out of poverty in many many countries many countries going from from third to second world they start getting a bit more decision around what they do with their lives and they will look and 59:12 go well hang on you've done this and this and this but you're calling these people the bad people Xi Jinping is meant to be our enemy but I don't see him bombing all these people I don't see and I think it is a huge danger to to the west. Um because you know at the end of the day we're losing a lot of nothing has destroyed western soft power as far as influence in in nations like Israel and America's actions in the past. I'll say since October 7th nothing has destroyed soft power like that because Muslim nations will look and go what the [ __ ] and other nations will look at where we um have a what is the term I'm looking for? a hierarchy of suffering and go hang on but you care about these people suffering but not them. Now the perfect example of this is when there was that bomb dropped in it was northeastern Ukraine I k I believe it killed about 20 civilians and one or two 1:00:14 Ukrainian commanders they bombed a military parade. Mhm. Now, when I say military parade, parade, the term parade in the military doesn't mean North Korean style or red square style down the street. No, a military parade can just mean where military is meeting up. So, we parade at 7:00 in the morning. Yeah. Gotcha. Um, it struck, killed a couple of targets, couple just senior command, killed a bunch of civilians. Horrible, horrible thing. Civilian casualties should always be limited where it is. But what we saw following that is outrage from every western leader, outrage on Twitter, outrage on news, outrage everywhere and a lot of people and started pointing at the hierarchy of suffering. I went, "Hang on, but look at Gaza or look at Lebanon and look at the amount of civilians getting killed to kill a target." And what I did is I looked at the what do we call it the um the non-combatant cas the non-combatant casualty value NCV I think it is 1:01:15 something like that but it how basically what this number is is how much how much can you how many civilians can you kill to kill this person okay okay I thought you meant like the condolence payment no no no here's a couple of grand for your dead daughter this is in targeting okay Um, Scott is a high value target. Therefore, we will kill 20 civilians to kill Scott. And throughout Iraq, Afghan low value targets, you're talking one to one. You kill one civilian to kill one target. Iraq sometimes, you know, they'd be working 20 30 to one. You know, you get high value guy that they're happy to kill 30 people to to take him out. God damn. Now, now, well, strap in. Um, Israel has they no one discloses these figures. Okay. But you know you you get a lot of disclosure classified stuff through media and everything routinely are working on 30 to1 50 to1 100 to one uh in at least one case 1:02:16 worked on a 300 to1 basis and what I bombed a refugee camp in that one right and I believe this was to kill in uh someone in Lebanon. Oh okay think of a different one. Go ahead. But the thing is too, well, okay, so but we have multiple examples that is okay. Um, and where a lot of people look at this and go, well, there's outrage over this, but none on that. The hypocrisy of adding that system of, well, you've got these non-combatant casualty values, and okay, I believe 30 to1 is far too [ __ ] high of maybe Iraq, but then you've got a country working 10 times that. What? No, you can't [ __ ] do it. Like, that's insane. And and what people were getting at and this is where I talk about I think hypocrisy is the biggest danger to the west is that then countries look across and go well you so the west is outraged about these civilians dying in northeastern Ukraine and 20 died to kill one commander horrible but the 300 died 1:03:18 to kill one over here and if you are a a kid sitting in Indonesia say a predominantly Muslim country how do you see that now I don't care if you or I could explain away and go, "Yes, but this person was in a camp and Hamas's tunnel and blah blah blah and that this guy in Ukraine was off duty and it was Easter and this and that." Okay, I don't care if you can explain that because you know who's not going to explain that is the kid sitting in Indonesia trying to figure out if Indonesia is going to come into the sphere of influence of the West or into China. They're not they're not going to do that and they're not going to listen to me trying to try and [ __ ] explain this away. Nor should they. Oh, it's been like this this whole century. I love telling the anecdote of I saw years ago. This is in like 04. Okay, this like a year into a Rockward 2, maybe 05, but I bet it was 04 still. Hell, it could have even been 03 still. And there was a guy who was a regular on Fox News at the time, and I can't ever remember his name for the life of me, but he used to come on there all the time, and he was interviewed by Sean 1:04:19 Hannity. And he says, "Sean, we have to stop the war." And Hannity's like, "What?" like you don't talk like that on this show. You know, he's shocked. And the guy says, "Listen, I'm a missionary and I'm traveling around Asia and everywhere I go to teach people about Jesus, they say to me, but that's the religion of the Americans that invaded Iraq and you're killing all these people and they won't even listen to me at And so here on his hierarchy of values, God and his son are up here and the nation state and its democracy and its little policies are less important. And and and Hannity, you know, and this guy was gone. They like hung up on him. He was gone. He's never on Fox News again after that, right? Um but he was so sincere. Yeah. that like look man, Fox News is helping right now to make brand USA look really bad 1:05:19 in a way. And and look at all the cause all the chaos we've caused since then. I mean that's nothing compared. We've done a thousand times that damage since then. And and and this comes from I want America. I want the West. I want Australia. I want Europe. I want them to succeed. That's the thing is I want you know I think I think I think that our system is it's not perfect of course but it is the fairest. It's that you can you can you've got opportunity women can do what they like with you know as as far as you know within the norms of society I'm guessing and and you know people like freedom great I want our system to succeed but we need to also see that we are the exception not the rule the western world is what maybe just under a billion people max probably more like 700 million probably counting some you know some nations on the fringes of 8 billion. And I tell you what, so 8 billion people, if you were to round up and go, do you have a positive or negative view of America? I'd tell you 1:06:20 the [ __ ] vast majority would say negative. And you know who would also say negative is probably a [ __ ] lot of other Westerners. And a lot of Americans, too. And in in the world's eyes, as soft power is going to be is more and more important than ever. That's the key to it all because it's the cruelty. is not just the hypocrisy but the the the absolute blatant barbarism going on here and the corruption in the economy you know why are so many kids this is one of the things I really wish I had not left on the table during the Tucker discussion he asked me at the end and I something I really should have emphasized was um the corruption of American capitalism because of the great deformation of American militarism post World War II here is probably 85% of the cause of the belief in Marxism and pseudo Marxism on the part of young people in this country because they just identified this system as capitalism and they want to identify 1:07:21 with whatever's the opposite of that. Well, which is it's sort of the same reason I'm a libertarian because I identify free market capitalism as the opposite of what we got now. But that's why they're such socialists is because it's in reaction to to the corruption of American militarism and imperson. I'm guessing you would see a lot of very progressive socialist Marxist people. They are not their head has not been filled with, you know, prop. They haven't been reading Karl Mars and this and that and and [ __ ] Lenon and and become No, no, no. They're just watching. They are well they're a reflection of the of their surroundings and their state around them. And what they are looking at is they're going, "Hang on, a [ __ ] coffee costs $6. I can never afford a house. The job opportunities are somewhat limited. My education is costing this much. And if I break my arm, it's going to cost me $5,000." And they're going, "Well, I can't afford this." So, we look for a different system. And Tucker has a 1:08:22 fantastic part of one of his podcasts. It's been clipped and bought out about I completely understand why young people in America or young people in Australia are socialist or Marxist or whatever you want to call it. Completely understand the the average p the average price of a house in Australia is a million. Now I know in America it's significantly cheaper than that, but that that's a million Australian dollar. So we're talking $650,000 American. That's the average and prices around here way up too. It's the monetary inflation. People go, I cannot afford that. I cannot afford my rent. They look for different systems. They are a reflection. It says the government is a reflection of society and society is a reflection of the government. You're looking in the [ __ ] mirror. And at the end of the day, we need to look at not, hey, we going to take the, you know, oh, these [ __ ] people on the right wing, they want guns and ammo and blah blah blah and they like Jesus and all people on the left are [ __ ] crazy flying flag, trans flags, and this and that. We need to go, why is that? Why do these people 1:09:23 feel like they need to be armed to the teeth? Or why do these feel these people feel like that they need a um a more communist or socialist style society? Why do these people feel like that? And we also need to go, well, if we want to just if we want to be free, people need to be able to go as far along this left and right as as they like because I'm I'm a freedom absolutist. I am a freedom of speech absolutist, too. Me, too. Um, but I I will support someone's right to fly whatever banner they want and whatever views they want as long as it's not physically harming someone. Um, but we also need to accept that and go, why is that? Why are people becoming more extreme? Why Why is Europe moving further right? Like way further right? Why is that happening? Look at the EU. It's exactly the reason it's [ __ ] happening. Look at what Ka Kalis will say on on something. And you're like, "Yeah, no [ __ ] that young men are [ __ ] not buying this 1:10:24 Kool-Aid bullshit." Um, no [ __ ] everyone left California to come to Texas. Like all of that. Um, yeah, it's there's things I love about America and I should say there's things I love about states like Texas. I haven't spent much time in many other states. I've spent probably about 8 months here all up. Um, and there's bits that I that I I find a bit backwards too. Um, and bits that I find that is a talking point rather than actually in like like freedom. He's like, well, okay, but people part of freedom in my opinion and you know tech, you disagree with me as you'd like, but freedom also means that you have the freedom to be able to afford to live too. That you can you can you have the freedom to go to school. You've got the freedom to safety, but you've got the freedom as well to be able to afford to go to university and get into a competitive market and there and therefore we we have bases of where you 1:11:24 can move in in a competitive system. But I see that there is this I think I think the um the bits I love about America is that you guys can you can hold this and you fly your flag and speak about this and it's great. You know, your media and is far more open um to discussion than than a lot of countries that say that they're freeer too. Yeah. I don't feel any threat on this podcast criticizing Trump or Biden or Harris or you or anyone, you know, really. I could I could say that I believe American police step over the line far too [ __ ] often as a foreigner in your nation. You know what's going to happen to me now when this goes up? Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. At the border the other day, I've ticked a whole bunch of [ __ ] weird boxes on my on my my esester like visa to come in. Hey, man. Have a good day. Thanks, man. Like that's something I love. But I think there's this too. There's an illusion too of freedom means that I've got uh a gun and a this and a that. But I'm also like, okay, I I can agree with that. But people also need 1:12:25 the ability to [ __ ] live. Look, this is why the American Freedomists, aka the libertarians, we're all for hard money. We all want I showed you that my mug with the hanging banker. Why? Why do libertarians hate bankers? It's because bankers create new money and they dilute the value of everybody else's money. Monetary inflation causes price inflation, causes the boom and bust cycle, ruins everything. Why in the world should houses get more and more expensive? Because we allow government to control one half of every transaction. The currency, what is this, Russia or something? Yeah, it's ridiculous. Should be a 100% gold standard. And any banker or government official who creates a new dollar should be crucified and then they'll learn and then they can't do that anymore. And then and then the price of everything will fall as technology and productivity improve like it would work in a free market capitalist system. Obviously 1:13:27 the biggest thing my biggest observation of America is the creep in price. Um I'm telling you so because because learn about Austrian school economics that's the key. I'm guessing that most of your audience is American. Um, and therefore you've seen a because it's creeping so slowly. It's moving your chair back a millimeter every day and no one notices it when you hit the wall because you're you're American. You haven't actually noticed this as maybe as much as I have. The first time I was in America was in 2019. First time I visited him. Then I came back the next time in 2023, I believe. And I don't know what the inflation rates you guys have been told is, it is double as expensive. Oh yeah, it is. We noticed. We did notice. Yeah. But what I'm saying is I think many you are very observant and you're in this sphere. But I think a lot of people who just day by day pay their bills, go to work, they're a teacher, they're a cop, there whatever they've noticed just a five or 10% difference week to week. And because that or year to year because that's so over time they 1:14:28 haven't I went came back and because I had that like hard reset I'm like what the [ __ ] Yeah. Australia. This is why the Democrats lost. I'd like to think that it's a thousand other things but it's the inflation more than anything. The price of America is insane. Impossible. America is more way more expensive than Australia. Uh everything but housing. Um with it's hard with job opportunity. There's more and less in many ways. Yeah. Um, America is in a um difficult spot, but America, America, Australia, whatever, we should not have people uh homeless on the street. Now, as well as you're going to always have people with mental health who end up on the street. If you just have a million people, you're going to end up with a hundred of them. The whole point the point about the rising prices the rising prices is because of monetary inflation. And the monetary inflation is to make government seem free. Yeah. Because if they raise your taxes too much, you won't pay them. Yeah. Right. And so they just print it. 1:15:28 Yeah. And then you end up paying later when you're staring at your shoes standing on unemployment line and you don't realize. No, this is your cost of killing all those Afghans. You know what I mean? That wealth had to come from your future time spent idle or at your uncle's funeral when he shoots himself in the head cuz he got laid off and he doesn't know why the economy booms and busts every 10 years and that it ain't his fault. And it's it's which happens and and I'll tell you after the crash of08 because I'm just a news guy. It's all I do is read the dang news. And after the crash of '08 and then, you know, into 09 and 010, there's just nothing but dudes blowing their brains out because there's, you know, people internalize the responsibility for their failure. Who's like, "No, the masters of the universe have waged a world empire and boomed and busted your economy. You had nothing to do with it. You're you you're the poor schmuck that got run over." And people are like, "Oh my god, I worked my whole life and I failed and I can't protect my family and whatever." and 1:16:29 they just jump off a bridge, mate. It's crazy, man. It's horrible. It is. It's crazy and it's horrible. And you know, everybody needs to learn Austrian school economics. Hard money is the solution to this. The only solution to it is the people that work the hardest. Yeah. The this is uh there's a great And the thing is I And I love to say to people, take you need to take uh in information from everywhere. Extreme left, extreme right, everything. Take it in. Find your own happy medium. And what and what I said to you before, one of my favorite bits to to tell people is disagreement and competency is not synonymous. You can disagree with someone and say they are [ __ ] competent at their job. Um, my biggest concern with the Ukraine negotiation is the competency of the American staff and Ukrainian staff versus the Russian. Hey, let's hold that thought right there because let's refresh our coffees and we'll start out with part two because I really want to get into what's going on in the Ukraine war with you. Sorry. Well, so one thing that I was listening to this guy who's a hard left, 1:17:30 like a hardleft socialist economist and what he his biggest message, I disagreed with a lot of what he said, but his biggest message was we're killing the middle class. And he said, "What we're going to end up with is no middle class. You're going to end up with people that are lower class who can't make the leap to high because that's impossible to make. You're going to end up with high and low, no middle, and you're going to have a [ __ ] a society of basically zars and poverty. And to be honest, if I look and observe Australian America, people are getting richer at a rate and people getting poor at a rate. No one seems to be in that, you know, two people both earning $100,000 a year. They own a home, they have a dog, they have two kids, they have two cars, getting by. Great. That's [ __ ] non-existent anymore. two of my friends. So, my closest friend, she's a doctor. He's an propulsion engineer on [ __ ] aircraft. They can't buy a [ __ ] house. They have one car. You know who the middle class is? It's the retired people who already own and 1:18:32 and middle class people already own homes and then they don't realize this, but they're all on welfare as the value of their home is constantly increasing because of all the new money being injected in the middle class, refinance their house and all The middle class is what drives a country like America at the end of the day. That is the worker ants in the [ __ ] system. And you we are killing that class by making their dollars worth less, working more hours, more restrictions, everything. We are killing that class. And you know, at the end of the day, there may be some people who are very, very Marxist talking about this, but I believe they're right. It's like it doesn't mean therefore we bring in these [ __ ] Marxist policies. Price control ain't going to help. And it doesn't mean therefore we have to tax the 1%. No, no, no. It means hey, we need people to be able to afford to [ __ ] live. If you're working 50 hours a [ __ ] week, I don't care if you're working at McDonald's or as a doctor and engineer like my friends. Yeah, you should be able to afford to live or else you know what you're going to end 1:19:32 up with? You're going to have people going, "We're looking for a different system." Look, and what's what's in the news right now all the time? Donald Trump is mad as hell at the Fed because he wants them to cut rates and print more money. He wants more inflation because it's an artificial prosperity and when the when the music stops, we're due for another crash. And so, just like last time, he wants to put off the crash to let somebody else's. But every time that music stops, which just means that when it when the crash does come, it's going to be that much worse. That's the thing, though. Every time the music stops, it stops a little bit longer. It stops a bit harder. Yep. When does the music stop and it doesn't restart? When does the music stop and the [ __ ] when people lose confidence in the dollar together, right? And we're getting there. Well, you speak to many people who are saying we're witnessing the end of an empire. Many people will say that. Um, inshallah. Hang on. We'll be right back. We'll be back. Hey y'all. I've been working on the audio book of my new book, Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine. 1:20:31 I've now finished and posted part three of the audio book to my Substack and Patreon at scott hortonshow.com and patreon.com/scottortonshow. So, that finishes all of George HW Bush and Bill Clinton. I know there's still a long way to go, but just these first two chapters are almost 10 hours of audio to get you started. I promise I'm doing the rest as fast as I can. Get the audio book of Provoked first. Subscribe at scott hortonshow.com or patreon.com/scott Horton show. Hey y'all. Here's how you can support those who support this show and stay awake while you're doing things. Mundo artisan coffees. Mundo artisan coffees.com. Get it. Starbucks supports the war party. Mundo is with us and it's really good. Get the Scott Horton show blend. Just click the link in the righth hand margin at scottorton.org. Hey guys, I have some wasps in my house, so I shot them to death with my trusty Bug assault 3.0 model with the improved 1:21:31 salt reservoir and bar safety. I don't have a deal with them, but the show does earn a kickback every time you get a Bug assault or anything else you buy from Amazon.com by way of the link in the right-hand margin on the front page at scottorton.org. So keep that in mind. And don't worry about the mess, your wife will clean it up. Well, folks, sad to say, they lied us into war. All of them. World War I, World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq War I, Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq War II, Libya, Syria, Yemen, all of them. But now you can get the ebook, All the War Lies by me for free. Just sign up the email list at the bottom of the page at scottorton.org or go to scottorton.org/subscribe. Get all the war lies by me for free and then you'll never have to believe them again. All right, continuing on here. Part two of our interview with the great Matt Williams. Willie OEM. What's OEM? 1:22:32 OM. It's all of Australia medal. So, it's a uh Queen's Commenation. Uh well, why do I always see OEM? That's just cuz I got it wrong. OM original manufacturing, whatever it is. Uh but no no no it's OAM so it's a a service to the metal a service to the nation medal basically um and I can have so depending on the level of I don't know if you have this in America but depending on the level of commenation or like award you can then have a postnominal so my name on my license is Matthew Williams OIM so my license my passport whatever can show that I am a queen's order of Australia medalist so that's what it means yeah gotcha Okay. So, speaking of which, that's your YouTube channel where you specialize in you talk about Gaza and Iran and wherever things are blowing up, but of course, especially you've been looking at Ukraine. Yeah. Well, I've spent a number of months in in many. So, I've spent, you know, seven to eight months in Ukraine and say a few months in uh Israel and 1:23:34 whatever, too. So, I get around to um which which is good and bad. I mean, I don't agree at all with Douglas Murray about that you need to go there at all. anything it can actually skew your vision because if you go to Israel you're shown in Israel. Yeah. You get a tempan tour. Well, you can also like everywhere in the world people are lovely. I went to the most lovely people in the [ __ ] world when I was in Idlib in Syria. [ __ ] lovely. But what you get then is you get you can be very skewed by well these people are lovely and then those people must be evil. No, you know, like like you can actually skew to be to be unbiased is actually can be easier as an outside observer a little bit like we talked about the American economy. I actually think it's easier for me to say your inflation's out of [ __ ] control when I've had like a two or three year gap between seeing it rather than this lifestyle creep that people may just experience. Um but yes, main mainly specialize in Ukraine, Russia and a traditional nature of warfare which this is. So I asked Daniel L. Davis, the great American uh hero because he was a whistleblower on the Afghan war. Uh 1:24:36 well, who's your favorite Ukraine war analyst? And he said, "You immediately." Uh that's how he knows what he knows. And and Daniel Davis knows a hell of a lot. So, uh, I watch you whenever I can. And I have to say that, uh, I'm always so far behind on everything that sometimes I have trouble because you're zoomed in so close on this or that part of Zebrosia that I don't know where the hell we're talking about now. You know what I mean? Like so. So, but then I guess that's probably the same for most of the audience too is we're we're all very far behind on what's the battle map in Ukraine look like now. The last I saw it, they controlled virtually the Russians controlled virtually all of Luhansk and still 99% there. Okay. Right. And then you go ahead from here and tell me the m at least your your thumbnail sketch percentages of control over Detrosia and Kersson and then take 1:25:40 me to Sunni and whatever else you need. Okay. Well, as far as percentage controls, I'd need to bring up maps to look. But just go down the list of the of the four major four major ones. It's 99 like 8% of Lansk. It's the And it's it's 34 of Donesk and it's it's a fair bit of Lans sorry of um Zap. There's fair bit of fair bit what it's more than half. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah. You're talking 3/4 two/3 of these. But you're also talking when you talk of Hersan you're talking that they also hold they don't hold other side of the river and her son which is again body of water incredibly difficult to cross both ways and unbelievably hard right. Um so of the four oblasses of which Putin is demanding he controls the majority of those four uh and very very close um in lans to controlling 100%. And then Putin also occupies uh parts in Hak he opened a new front line. When I say the Russian command he he's not 1:26:42 commanding [ __ ] troops. So take discount that the the Russian forces opened a new front line. uh yesterday the day before in Khakiv and then they of course hold areas in Sumi. So Sumi is maybe 150 square kilometers you know that's what 100 square miles say uh and in Hark is is maybe 50 square miles but it's it's it's that is far more strategic than it is seizing and holding ground. It's to move Ukrainian forces around. And this is exactly what you do in a war where you are numerically superior. If you have more forces, well then if we lengthen the front line, we thin you out. We thin us out, too. But it's less catastro. If you've got 10 men on the football pitch and they've got five and you make it twice as wide, you're going to suffer less than them. That's what the Russians are doing. This is where Ukraine opening curs blaster where they moved back into Russia was [ __ ] catastrophic. 1:27:45 Catastrophic for the Ukrainian forces. And I've never been dragged as much online as when that o day one that opened day one Ukraine made a heap of ground and I said this is a huge [ __ ] mistake. Davis said the same thing to me on the show that day. Yeah. And everyone said, "No, no, no, but they've got, you know, 50 square kilmters in a day." And I said, "Wait, now it's turned out worse than I predicted it." It's not what you do. You do not lengthen the [ __ ] front line. Let me ask you a caveat cuz that's okay. There's caveats to everything. Yes. Yes. Here's do. Yes. Didn't everybody think that, boy, this isn't going to last? And then didn't it last much longer than anyone thought? And then what does that tell you? Does it tell you the strength of Ukraine? It tells me that Russian forces are better at at strategy than people like to think. In other words, and just be specific here. You're this is not a cope for this is not a cope. Rationalizing the Russian side. You're saying they were smart to kind of kettle the Ukrainian country. They did exactly what I said you should 1:28:46 do. I so let everybody people at the time who thought it was a trap who thought that they let them that they let the border guard be light in order to encourage I I don't agree they encouraged them across and I don't think they purposely trapped them but they've taken opportunity where it was given and look let's let's say in in the beginning I if you just have a spectrum of pro-Russia to pro Ukraine I'd sit closer on the pro- Ukraine side I've been there I I I want them to have a prosperous society and their own sovereignty and independence that's But also take into account the caveats nuance of if you're next to a great state, a great power. There's certain things which just operate [ __ ] differently. Mexico, like it or not, has to operate differently because they're on the border of the US. They just [ __ ] do. It's not fair. It's [ __ ] I Okay. Okay. But you just do. If China wanted to put nuclear weapons in [ __ ] New Zealand, Australia would say [ __ ] no. We said the same thing when Indonesia 1:29:47 and Russia were talking about Russian bombers in Indonesia. You know what Australia did? We said [ __ ] no. That's how this works. It's not fair. It's Professor Marshon puts better than the tragedy of great power politics. It's a tragedy, but it's the way the world works. My my best mate is 6'3ish, 12 130 kg, which is I don't know 300 pound 200. Yeah, near 300 lb something like that. and is a black belt in jiu-jitsu. If he pushes me at the [ __ ] pub or someone pushes him versus they push me be a very [ __ ] different outcome. Okay, it's not fair, but it's a different [ __ ] outcome. Now, so so we'll caveat that. What I said when Ukraine moved into uh into Kursk is I said the Russians should only work to stabilize and lengthen their offensive in. Tie them up there. You need way more numbers on offensive action than defensive. So Ukraine push 1:30:49 in 10,000 guys. Russia's only going to need three or four thousand to hold it. And what I said, go back to my [ __ ] video on that day. I said the best the best way for Russia to defend against this is push hard in the east. Ukraine's pushing in the north. [ __ ] push hard in Donesk. What did we see for the next three months? Record gains month on month or month in the east. And it's exactly what you would do because what you do is why push back draw them back out. And what Ukraine did was they got [ __ ] stuck in Kursk. It should have been if it was a sorry I'm passionate about this. If it was a raid, if they went across, captured 200 border guards, killed 100 border guards, and went back in a week, would have been a fantastic specular a spectacular operation. That's what I predicted day one. I said, "This is not going to last. There's no way. They're not going to seize and hold ground here." Cuz as soon as you push in like that, you're surrounded on three sides, right? And not only that, border crossings [ __ ] suck. So there's shitty roads and a border crossing between Russia, Ukraine sucks. But the ability for 1:31:50 Russia to bring logistics into Kursk is fantastic. It's a [ __ ] train and then you're straight in and your air cover, your artillery, everything was on three sides. You go in, surprise, back out, [ __ ] done where Ukraine has to bring [ __ ] across a [ __ ] border covered in [ __ ] drones, all this [ __ ] And it wasn't that at all. They went in and Zilinsky for some reason, Zalinsky and and his and and Cerski, they believed that Russia would swap a,000 km, which was the absolute max, for 100,000. that oh it will be a bargaining chip of taking background and I'm like but even at 10 to one kilometer squares change it's negligible okay we'll give you 10,000 for a th00and they occupy 12und especially when the time is on the Russian side anyway right well this has been an argument of what people said in the beginning it was everyone in the beginning said time's on Ukraine side because of the Russian economy and I said maybe be careful on that because time tends to be on the side of the country with a larger population and larger industrial capacity. 1:32:51 What have we what have we seen? Full of timber and oil and gas to export and food. Yeah. And and and neighbors of which don't give a [ __ ] about your um your sanctions. Yep. No, we're not going to send inspectors to the Mongolia [ __ ] border or the China and be like, "Oh, what's in that [ __ ] box?" No. Like it's it's I got to interject this because I just think it's so important. The war nerd Gary Bretcher, right, uh, wrote an article back in 2014 where he goes, "Hey, look everybody, Russia just opened up their natural gas pipeline to China. Game over. Europe can never threaten Russia again with economic blackmail of any kind because they just don't need you." That's it. And that was 10 years ago. He was right. Yesterday, South China Morning Post or they call themselves um had had an article that um the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi um who again goes into that what I spoke about of competence and um agreement is not synonymous incredibly competent 1:33:51 foreign minister absolutely [ __ ] roasted Kalis of Vanderline and basically sat them down and gave them a [ __ ] lesson in real politic and was like I don't give a [ __ ] about your ideas of you that values win wars. It doesn't. Um, this this is and the article's fantastic about Wang Yi basically smoking these people about like this isn't how the world [ __ ] works and that we can't let we can't let Russia lose. China doesn't want a [ __ ] a belligerent on the border with nuclear weapons who's out of control. They don't want that. They won't let them lose and they will just keep buying [ __ ] and you know it's it's this the sanctions have had impact but not ma ma like okay not massive you know like and and Russia's industrial capacity now is four times the west including America and that goes to the larger question too and we can zoom back into Ukraine I really want if if we I mean you brought it up so it's important that um as far as I understand it America's 1:34:52 Russia policy is really all about trying to one either win them over would be at least Kissinger's previous stance and the Trump and Hillary Clinton's stance even with the reset in early Obama years. We want to bring Russia west to deprive China of them. Yes. Uh and then the other idea is and this is later Hillary Clinton and the rest of the hawks is well that didn't work. So now we want to bog them down in a war in the east and weaken them again to deprive China of them one way or the other because what it's really all about Russia is China. So then as you're saying that's all the reason that China has to do everything they can to keep Russia in the game on in their west. So look we actually before we get into the question about China I've never had Dr. Pepper before and you said that I need to try um American Dr. Pepper. Uh, well, we'll see. And then I'll then I'll answer the question about China because I think this is the the biggest part of this war. We're gonna find out. That's right. 1:35:54 Well, what's the flavor meant to be? It's almost It's almost licoricey. It's nice. No, no, it's not licorice. Licorice is carbonated water. Oh, fructose corny. It's America. It's got It's got antifreeze in is what it's got. That would probably be banned in Australia. I don't know. Um anyway, so let's Wait, let me um Got to try something new on the podcast, huh? What the [ __ ] I used to know what it was called. Hey, I think they took the antifreeze out of here. Damn. Put in my radio. Or they just took the antifreeze off of the ingredients. Yeah, it's polyethylene glycol. Jesus. Which is just ethylene glycol is antifreeze. Polyethylene glycol is your Dr. pepper ingredient, but apparently Exactly. they stopped listing it on the can. I don't know if they really stopped putting it in there. My god. Not that it ever stopped me from drinking it. Yeah, exactly. Um, so China China is Wait, so do you like it? 1:36:54 Yeah, I like it. Yeah, he likes it. I like it. So, uh, China is a larger threat. So, sorry, sorry, I use the word threat. Competition wise, China is more of a threat to America than the Soviet Union ever was. China's um potential and latent military power and just overall power is unbelievable. Well over a billion people purchasing power parody of a larger GDP than America. Talking 40 trillion I believe um manufacturing off the [ __ ] charts. Like one single port in China makes more than like the rest of the world in shipping. Unfucking believable power. But China's problems, all the problems China has in a protracted war is solved by Russia. So China's primary issues if it were to step into protracted, this doesn't mean hot war, but it could mean cold war too. China's largest issues is feeding the population, land, how much land you actually have 1:37:54 now. They've got a lot of farmland, but if things start, you know, getting difficult, well, Russia is a huge exporter of food, one of the largest in the world. So that Russia solved that. The largest military issue is ports, access to the sea and different seas. Well, [ __ ] look at Russia's coastline all the way from right in NATO to up over the [ __ ] Arctic. are some small bits of um technology. China is world leading or very close to America in a lot of technology um particularly around things like AI and we don't know how far China is down the line with like things like stealth on aircraft. I know the American you know Instagram hawks and YouTubers ah it's [ __ ] it's got the radar cross-section of a of a tanker and you're like no one knows that. No one know. You don't know that unless you're in the [ __ ] Chinese MSS and you are top secret clearly. You don't know the radar cross-section on that aircraft. So, we don't know. Um, but some small bits technology as far as um high uh high-end 1:38:58 submarine warfare and anti-ubmarine warfare. Russia is world leading that. As well as uh nuclear propulsion. Russia is world leading at nuclear propulsion ice breakers. So, that's why Russia and China are working together at the moment on nuclear ice breakers. They're [ __ ] doing that for the Arctic because there's a lot. They said, "Why do you think Trump wants Greenland?" Mhm. [ __ ] war on the Arctic. And whether you believe the climate change is humanmade or cyclical, I don't give a [ __ ] We know it's warming up north. Therefore, way more becomes available. North Sea route, North Sea route becomes more available. Well, let me just add right here, cuz this is what we call in the New World, the Northwest Passage is to be able to sail above Canada, which is what they always wanted and never could, and now they can. But there's another one which is the route above northern Asia, above Russia to go from China to Europe which means you don't have to go around India and up the Red Sea or around Africa at all. And I forgot the why do you think some countries that are proxies are proxies are blocking off the Red Sea? Um so so you know this is all soft power 1:39:57 hybrid warfare gray warfare whatever you want to call but again so the problems China the problems China has Russia solve a lot of them and there's more problems than just just that that they solve but vice versa Russia's biggest problem is population it's high level technology and cheap manufacturing like things like chips well who the [ __ ] is the world leader at that in all those sectors [ __ ] China huge problem if these two don't they have a formal military alliance, but the relationship that these two have should terrify people. It should. And this is overall with with Russia is what I've been saying and I said yesterday is that Trump his largest competition is China. Absolutely. The ones to knock America off off number one spot is China. And that doesn't mean militarily. That just means in in many different ways. And then they've already knocked off manufacturing and many other sectors. Uh you look at the graduates in STEM, trust 1:41:00 me, they're way ahead of [ __ ] that. Um but that America need to rise. They reason to say they want to stay where they are maintain the status quo. And what I've said is that Trump, someone like Trump, a real realist leader like that will, if he has to throw Ukraine under the bus or throw any any country under the bus um to bring Russia away from China, if that's possible. Now, many people will say it's too far gone. And many people in the more pro-Russian audience or, you know, global south audience will say it's too far gone. Russia and China are too close together. Now, I disagree. I think culturally and traditionally Russia and America are far closer than Russia and China significantly. That too and has said that explicitly his whole career. Christian, it's orthodox, you know, it's it's Moscow is a European city, you know, like yeah, at the end of the day um and I think we will see a huge amount of um effort put to bring Russia back 1:42:01 into the Western sphere of influence. Whether they want that or not, I'm unsure. Whether it's possible or not, we'll see. Uh but I think we'll see a lot of that. Um because what we've done is the the RAND article 2019 of extending Russia basically explains exactly what what has happened is right, we want to weaken Russia militarily through Ukraine. Okay. But in that in you know I think it's I think it's a massive document. It might be 50 pages but pretty near the end it talks about what considerations are there and what problems could could become of this. Right. Oh, we could end up uh creating division within NATO. Ukraine will wear a inmeasurable cost uh and Russia may just move its industry into war. Right? And and I guess the whole document is like that. They go, "Well, you know what we could do? We could back the jihadists in Syria more again." And then they have disclaimer. Of course, if you do that, they might create a bin Laden state and we don't want that. And then they go, "Well, We 1:43:02 don't want the Soviets in Kabal, so we fund the Mujad. Yeah. Yeah. We could put more weapons into I mean, just in this specific document, the extending Russia document, we could put more weapons into Ukraine. Disclaimer, that could cause Russia to go ahead and invade, which is not what we want, right? Well, I'm not convinced it wasn't what they wanted either. Well, not the guys who wrote that study anyway. Yes. So, so that that's where we are. And China, we don't know where they go. Um, and and and historically, you know, people talk China, you they're going to invade this, invade that. You know, well, history doesn't really show that, guys. They're all under heaven. Let me ask you this. Donald Trump came in and at one part he was just musing and, you know, he says a lot of things, but he did say in one of his first days in power there in one of those little press gaggles in the White House that like, hey, I don't want to pivot to great power competition. nor should we with Russia and China at all. I want to just pivot away from conflict with anybody and let's just make money and be 1:44:04 at peace. And I thought, hey, yeah, how about that? And but I wonder, okay, so like in your in your military mind, to what degree does America, the great power, have to deal with Russia and China as powers in in at least competition? um or to what degree could we um you know, as Trump was saying, just kind of drop all of that and figure out how to get along and be all right. For American to maintain the status quo has to quell China. It's not about America growing, it's about shrinking China to to maintain if Americans want to maintain the status quo at the moment of America number one, China number two. It's to to grow America is too difficult, too expensive, and you don't have the resource to do it. So, we use that to try and reduce China's rate of growth through sanctions or through not doing business or moving parts out and increasing soft power, whatever. That all sounds like short-term goals at long-term expense though, right? Cuz you just breed all kinds of resentment and 1:45:06 so so that's enemy status. This is this is the the tragedy of great power politics. The thing is if you want to maintain status quo, well, you have to knock them down a peg, too. Uh and that is the problem because if Trump comes in with the idea of we don't want great great state competition. What if other great states says but we want great state competition. We're not happy with being level. Like what happens if Xi says that's nice Trump that's nice that you want to be equals. I don't want to be [ __ ] equal. I want as much I I want I want China to be number one. If you think America first is big is big in America. Nothing compared to China first in China. Um it it makes it makes American right look like [ __ ] as far as people go we want America first but you know we still want to look after Australia and this and that. China China first is are you Chinese? No [ __ ] off that you know that that's it. Um and and of course the problems that comes with this as well. Uh so that's the thing is is you're you're asking 1:46:08 other countries to play ball, but we're also asking other countries to play ball while we ourselves spend a trillion dollars a year on defense and all. And it's not defense because we're not building defensive items. We're building submarines to go around the world and um ships that carry planes and can work as a floating airport off the coast. And we have ships all around Taiwan and China and this and that. So it's also like okay you make the first move then and are we prepared to that? No because what if they don't like this this is the problem. Um and this is where we will just swi uh switch and we probably already have into a bipolar system where you have you know two regional hedgemans of America and China and you have centers of influence from there and that's the hard bit about say Australia and this this was a brief the other day that I was um how do I put this um informed about I will say 1:47:08 um was either way Australia lose that either Australia is in bad because 30 to 40% of our total GDP is from China. Who do you think we're [ __ ] selling [ __ ] to? But then we're a western state relying on American defense. And if America go to war with China, we're [ __ ] If America don't go to war with China, but want to move away and try and deinfluence them, we're also [ __ ] because we can't sell anything. We're in a bad way either way. This is where I think we should be walls up Australia. Everyone else, [ __ ] off. But that that's my willy dictatorship. Um and I'll be nuclear armed under got to turn those fighters into profit somehow. Exactly. Um yeah, exactly. Um but it's a very difficult um situation with China and we need to we need to just we need to sort of come to the conclusion of are they a threat militarily or competitively a threat because that is it is different but both it can both can 1:48:08 be true as well but do China want to go and invade other areas? Well, it doesn't look like it. And and China and Russia are having a massive increase in soft power because they will work with states or governments of which we won't work with as well. We will work with the state as long as you sort of abide by our rules-based order, whatever that is. If you if you if you're dem okay, we'll work with you, small African nation, but you must be democratic and you must do this and you must do that, rather than you be yourself, you be whatever you want to be. We just want access to a port or an airfield or this or that. And especially China, their fingers are in every pie uh everywhere. Um their global reach is unfathomable. People don't realize it in the most uh populated state in Australia, Victoria, the Chinese, they own the entire um the 1:49:10 entire power network. Every pole and wire whether above or below ground, every generator, every everything is owned by the Chinese. Same I believe in South Australia at least. The ethnic Chinese or Chinese nationals, Chinese government, PLA. Well, well, as far as where it goes, but it detracts back into a private company in China. Now, what is that? I don't know. I haven't done enough digging into that. But there's a lot less divide between public and private in a country like China. Um that's a problem. Who made that [ __ ] decision, you know? Um you know, so there's a lot of that and the fingers are in pies. And I've spoken about the threat of you know, we see Ukraine with the operation spiderweb with the drones taking out the bombers until we had about a dozen bombers. um that was Ukraine doing that in a in a in a country that is looking specifically for intelligence operations being Russia because they're at war with them. You don't think that if if there was an incident like that that China could wipe out every bomber in 10 minutes with 1:50:12 cells or somewhere like and I'm not saying that they they've got them already to do them but I'm saying that we need to look across and go what actually is the threat here or what is potentially being enabled by this too. Um, and it's a it's a it's a it's just politics where you have to look and we have to realize is China a threat or are they not? Is are they a threat to Russia at all? Because of course, yes. Now, Biden, Biden would say this all the time and I think he was paring William Burns because Burns, you know, this was his point of view and this is something that I had read about back in the 1990s that like from the Chinese point of view, boy, that Siberia sure is unpopulated and full of resources, maybe we just take that. Yeah. So, I wonder putting yourself in she's shoes, do you think that they just would rather value a close relationship with Moscow or that do you think they might be willing to risk it by going ahead and take I mean Oh, they I think they h bombs, right? 1:51:13 So, what the hell are they going to do? Invade? No, they'll they'll just they it's it's cheaper and easier to just work with them. It's cheaper and easier just to pay a rate on gas and oil than to [ __ ] invade and take it. You know, like like it's just cheaper and easier to do it. And because Biden would say, you know, that like, oh, Russia can't move east toward China. They're relying on the West and they have to do whatever we say because of this factor. They're worried that the Chinese are going to come and take Siberia from. So, they need us more than we need them and this kind of thing. But look, that seemed to be, especially listening to an idiot like Joe Biden say it, it seemed to be something that like he heard somebody say once, you know what I mean? And then he's like, "Oh yeah, that's the thing." But like I heard somebody say that once too a long time ago and obviously China is adjacent to Siberia and there's gold in them hills. But would it be worth it in in a thousand years to try it? Uh, look, China and Russia have a partnership that is beneficial to both 1:52:13 of them and I think that they'd look to maintain the status quo that Russia will go, "Look, we're selling a we're selling a shitload of stuff to you. You're paying us a shitload of money for it." What this is doing is now the gas, we both have capable nuclear deterrence. Well, the gas we used to sell to Europe to fund their industry that they paid us for. Now Europe's industry is [ __ ] and we're still receiving that money, but from you, right? We're happy with that. Like, countries want to I I don't believe that countries are all out there wanting just to cross borders and start war and kill men, right? Countries want to just maintain status quo as much as they can. It's when someone starts trying to move that that you go, "What the [ __ ] are you doing?" And you have to hammer down the nail that sticks up. And while Russia is getting [ __ ] billions of rubles from China and China's receiving barrels of oil by the [ __ ] as many as they want, why do anything? And and I think that that relationship 1:53:15 will maintain and it will chop and change as it needs, but movement across borders that way. And and what would it take for America what would America have to offer Russia to come back to us and cut those relationships? I I I and this far down the line I don't know I I I don't know if there's anything um China is the biggest beneficiary of the war in Ukraine by a mile. They haven't we've used a fuckload of everything shells some of our own guys who've got dollars everything you know so the and Russia's used a shitload. China still need to consider. Russia may be a friendly nation to them, but it's still a nation with a very big military and and [ __ ] atomic bombs on their border. China still need to consider Russia's a very powerful country. What what this war has done is it's used up a shitload of American munitions, shitload of Russian munitions. China, they've done nothing. They've just sat there and growing their industry. And it's it's shrunk um Europe's ability to industrialize. So it's shrunk Europe, 1:54:15 shrunk America, shrunk Russia. China's sitting there going like fantastic. Well, overall the Russian military has grown quite a bit and we'll stay. Sorry. Yes. More militarized now compared to before, right? Absolutely. But but as far as cost in this, it has cost a lot. So China, they still have economic hell to pay in, you know, postrition of all this. Yeah. Uh postwar attrition will be will be um it'll be mild to catastrophic. Um we we will see. Yeah. Again, China won't let Russia fail. That is a big fail. It would be that would be catastrophic for China cuz we got away with the collapse of the Soviet Union by the [ __ ] skin of our teeth. Very lucky that there wasn't bombs flying. Okay? No one wants to risk that again. uh including America and I've said this that America will will give Ukraine enough to hold the Russians back and will sanction Russia enough to um you know put the clutch in on their 1:55:16 industry a bit. They'll never do enough to win like Ukraine to win victorious on the battlefield and do or to collapse the economy because no one knows what happens then. No one [ __ ] knows what occurs then and same with China. They don't want that. and American China, they're going, "We may not like what's happening in Ukraine, but you know what's a lot worse for us? Russia falling apart. That's a fuckload worse." And having someone like is better better the devil. You know, we know Putin, Xene knows Putin, Trump knows Putin. That that and that is one of the big problems in Ukraine. And this is why I've been highly critical of the war following post 2022 and especially post23 counteroffensive was it's very obvious now that the West isn't going to give enough for you to win. isn't actually giving enough for you to stabilize. What you're doing is just a tritting your men. Yeah, that's what's occurring and that is catastrophic. And um commanders who launch wars without the ability to war forgo being commanders and start becoming butchers. And when I say command, I'm not just 1:56:18 talking Ukrainian command because they don't have any other choice. What are they going to do? Not it's Europeans and Americans continuing to push this as well. and this [ __ ] rhetoric of we give you a few more billion and you'll win. And they're telling the Ukrainians this, too. We'll give you five more billion and you'll win. No, you won't. There's a new article like that in foreign policy yesterday. It's it's it's devastating. And we talk about post-war attrition of the Russian economy and even Russian males that have died, you know, probably midund,000 or so. But Ukraine has had has suffered significant loss if not very similar loss in a much much smaller nation with a f fertility rate that is catastrophic. But also a country where immigration leaving is huge huge all the women have left like what happens after this and as I've said is I agree that borders and sovereignty is incredibly important of territorial sovereignty but you know what is more 1:57:19 important than that for a state is the people within it. America first and foremost is Americans. Secondly is your international recognized borders. And I will and Australia is the same. And I've said this about Ukraine. I'm not saying it's fair. I'm not saying it's right. I'm not saying it's just. But I will sacrifice a part of my land for the survival of my people. And what Russia is doing is trying to take some of your land and attritting your people. But at the same time, Europe is funding a war they are not willing to give you enough to win. Not even stabilize. And Europe is dragging their feet on [ __ ] everything on this to extend someone they say is a historic enemy at the expense of your people at the expense of your state. And there will there is already and it will grow rapidly anti-western rhetoric in Ukraine. It's [ __ ] huge. Of course Nazis love a good stab in the backtory and we gave them one. But it's not it's not it's not even just 1:58:20 Nazi. It's it's not these, you know, these minor extremist groups that exist. It it it's people going, "Hang on, you you like it's average Ukrainians who just getting by in life who are there going, you stand up, Macron or whoever, and say whatever it takes, however long it takes." Now, it's not whatever. I haven't seen a single French L clerk tank there. I haven't seen any Raphael jets. I haven't like It's retricality is what I find disgusting. And the the rhetoric is, hey, what the [ __ ] is this? It's not meaning that these people are going to switch and be pro-Russian, but it means that it's going to be pretty [ __ ] rough afterwards going like, "You [ __ ] us. You said you'd support us. You said this. We're not getting into NATO. Our country's been obliterated. Eventually, they're going to start looking for people that have been immigrated into Europe and send them back or or whatever." like and you're going to go, but you are the ones who have also been pushing this too from pre-war into the war. 1:59:20 Yeah, there's a lot of a lot of problems in this and I see that this is a real turning point for Europe. Um, hey y'all. If you run a business or a side hustle and want to keep more of your money out of the IRS's hands, Matthew Cersili, the aguras tax adviser, is your guy. He'll help you set up your business the right way, find every legal deduction, and keep the feds off your back without you ever needing to talk to the IRS yourself. Unlike most tax pros, Matthew actually hates the IRS and calls it a win-win when you get to keep your money and the government gets less. That's my kind of tax guy. Check them out at agaristtaxadvice.com/scott to get your free agorist tax toolkit. That's agoristaxadvice.com/scott. Hey guys, I've had a lot of great web masters over the years, but the team at expanddesigns.com have by far been the most competent and reliable. Harley Abbott and his team have made great sites for the show and the institute, and they keep them 2:00:21 running well, suggesting and making improvements all along. Make a deal with expandesigns.com for your new business or news site. They will take care of you. Use the promo code scott and save $500. That's expanddesigns.com. Man, I wish I was in school so I could drop out and sign up for Tom Woods's Liberty classroom instead. Tom has done such a great job on putting together a classical curriculum for everyone from junior high schoolers on up through the post-graduate level. And it's all very reasonably priced. Just make sure you click through from the link in the right margin at scottorton.org. Tom Woods's Liberty Classroom. Real history, real economics, real education. Hey y'all, here's how you can support those who support this show and stay awake while you're doing things. Mundo's artisan coffees. Mundoartisan coffees.com. Get it. Starbucks supports the war party. Mundo is with us and it's really good. Get the Scott Horton show 2:01:22 blend. Just click the link in the righth hand margin at scottorton.org. Wait, I have a question. Yeah. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, no. No, please. Now, one of my things is that I believe that Trump was sincere. He wanted to end the war, but he just got reinarated for his second term at just the wrong time because I think he does. The Russians have claimed these four provinces, but as you stipulated, they don't control them all yet. Do you agree with the uh analysis of Daniel Davis and others that the Russians are not really trying to take territory? That's secondary compared to they're trying to move very slow and just chew up their opposition with artillery. This is how you win a traditional war. Yeah. But the problem being then that when Trump comes in, they're still far from their officially stated goal, which is the line way over there that they haven't reached yet. And so now Trump just can't get them to come to the table because Putin's just not really willing to quit yet. And then secondary to that 2:02:23 after you talk about that because as we talked about the percentages that they control of Detrosia and Kersan there and the other side of the river and all that but then there's the obvious question once they take all of Luhansk's right there that's a historically Russian city they going to go ahead and take and then the same thing for Odessa that's the jewel of the Black Sea and to take it away from Ukraine would be Odessa is catastrophic ultimate catastrophe. Ukraine Ukraine as a state does not exist at that point. And yet if you look at the map though once you control all of Kersan and then if you did move to Odessa well then it's just a hop and a skip over to Transnistria which would make sense where there's a massive Soviet stockpile of weapons and a Russian population under Russian military protection now as this sort of frozen conflict minate. This is for people who don't know this is the Muldoven side of the river uh on the Muldoven Ukrainian border is this little 2:03:24 strip of land transnistria or transistaster there and um so it would make military sense then that hey as long as we're going this far we're going this far but then that could take I don't know how many years and I know I don't know if you know about this but at least I'm told that there's a pretty severe tunnel network under Odessa there is the KGB used it back in the day okay so this would you know, very conducive to Odessa. Odessa has unbelievable um uh under underground areas um that that have been there that have been used the the um for months. Uh, no. But it may like like I I don't think Odess is realistic at this point in time. But what we don't know is we don't know to answer your first question in this. We don't actually know the attrition rate of Ukraine or Russia. Okay. We have pretty good numbers. Don't believe the mods? No [ __ ] Um, but UA losses who count obituaries and so does 2:04:25 Mediaone pretty good. They might be 10 or 20% off, but even if it's 10 or 20% off. Well, if Russia is 20% more than Ukraine, that's not a problem. They've got four times the population, not only four times the population, but Russia's having a 10 times easier recruiting drive than Ukraine is. Ukraine was bragging about recruiting a few hundred people in in a recent drive. I'm sorry to interrupt your train thought here, but yeah, I I'm told like it's the standard is the assaulting army has an attrition rate of three times as much as the defenders and then obviously in this case that's going to be skewed because of the strategy and the tactics on the ground and whatever. So the reality of what that is, this gets taken by people on Twitter and used as a rule of thumb for losses. That's not what it is. The rule of thumb, the 3 to1 rule of thumb is what you want to assault with, not what your losses will be. So if there's a village of 10 Taliban, we want to fight with 30. So we 2:05:26 want 3 to1 advantage on the ground. That does not mean that we take three times the CS. No, no, no, not at all. It just means we want that advantage. That is optimal advantage for offensive warfare. Now, this number increases and decreases, of course, with the skill of your enemy, your air power, your artillery power can skew that massively, and it's a it's a rule of thumb for being a rule of thumb. We want 3 to one. Yeah. You know, but as far as losses, it doesn't mean that at all. Um, the losses in war traditionally has been artillery. That that's it. And I I actually unlike most people I guess uh I say you've got rotary, barrel, and glide artillery. I do not consider drones to be their own form of warfare. Drones in my opinion, FPVs and drone drop munitions, they're another form of artillery. It is it is, you know, 10 to 15 km used as guided artillery. So I classify it as artillery with which Russia have had parity for 2:06:29 most of the war and superiority in drones. Now, barrel artillery, Russia has had massive superiority the entire conflict of barrel like by a [ __ ] you know, minimum has been 2 to1. Like, you're talking minimum. And then glide artillery is like your glide bombs, which Ukraine has no um JDM kits fit on old Soviet bombs, right? Yes. And they've just got a million of these bombs. They're cheap as [ __ ] to make from 250 kg up to three tons. And they're a devastating weapon. and they're used basically as massive artillery. It's devastating. And and for my Ukrainian friends of fighting, it's not just the devastation of the bomb. It's the psychological impact of these two. It's [ __ ] because nothing can shoot them down because you can't waste a $2 million missile on a $20,000 [ __ ] bomb that they're dropping 50 of a day. Um, psychologically, it's a [ __ ] nightmare. And Russia's had either par or advantage in all of those three aspects the entire war. So to now say that the Russians are taking 10 2:07:30 times the casualties is ridiculous. Is there some as people will say ethnic difference in Russians and Ukrainians to be able to fight and warriors on the front line? No, there's not. Training difference. Well, uh, okay. NATO standard training. Ukraine's never received NATO standard training. the the the time frames people spoke about Australia is not a NATO country but we are at the NATO standard or or atove or above well you that takes as I said in the beginning 18 months to really get there of time in units and times on courses and all the they didn't receive that the best trained was in 2023 and it got [ __ ] hammered right the training now though Russians uh let's just go the Russian casualties in the front line are one to one the Ukrainians let's say they're losing the same amount but let's say Russia's recruiting know let's say five times the amount. That means their training pipeline can be significantly more normal than Ukraine's is. So you've got higher morale, you've got better 2:08:30 training, and you've got artillery parody. So this idea to say that now on the front line, Russia is taking 10 times casualties is [ __ ] ridiculous. There may have been times when that was the case, when you're grinding down in areas, it's likely going to be maybe higher because of offensive warfare. But you know what doesn't happen on like an offensive around AD gear is you don't get surrounded, cut off and left in the village and heaps of people [ __ ] die. So that 3:1 rule that people use. Yeah. But sometimes in defensive warfare you lose a catastrophic amount of soldiers like that that Abda or Maropul gets surrounded. Yes. The Russians. So we need to remember the battle the time of battle people believe is when the Russians enter Marople to when Marople falls. That's not the length of battle. The length of battle is when they start working on the flanks when they start pushing in. It's not first troop entering to last one out. In that part, okay, when the first Russian Vagna PMC guy entered Bakmud to Ukraine 2:09:32 withdrawing, Ukraine probably suffered less casualties at that point. But that's taking a small bit of the battle for Buckmood. It's taking the first guy entering. What you haven't considered is for the two months prior, Russian artillery hammered that [ __ ] position every single day to no Russian losses. Like if Russia's firing artillery from 30ks back on an area, they're losing [ __ ] all guys from that. So in the entire battle sequence, so yes, the offensive action right at the end to take the city is the last step in 10 steps of warfare. Those first nine steps, they're probably at par or less guys and the end step, they probably take more. When you're when you have storm troops moving into an area, okay? And at the moment, let's talk Pakovsk when that's the next city, the major area about to be enveloped by the Russians right now. There's no way the Russians are taking more casualties around there than the Ukrainians. The front line's not moving. They're just hammering the [ __ ] area with fat with um glide bombs, artillery, and drones to 2:10:32 very few Russian losses back the other way. When the Russians enter Pocros, they will likely take more ground losses. But that like I'm saying is that's the last sequence in the battle order. Um so we need to look at that entire battle order. And this gives us attritional war to go back to your first point about is the Russians goal here land. Yes, but it's not their primary goal. The goal of attritional warfare is to attrib 2:11:05 there are a lot of skeptics who assume I mean I know that the CIA official assessment was that the Russians would smash them and their military would lose immediately. Um but there have been a hell of a lot of of critics and analysts who have thought that they were going to essentially dissolve many times over the years. combat when the war started and I thought the Russian tanks would be there in 2 hours. Do you have any does anybody know and obviously it's secret but there's got to be some indication like how many units how many brigades how many men do they have still to fight with? I don't know. There's very little reserve. I know that you you if you're ripping people off the street not great. Um you have got guys who have been had no rotation on the front line that they just finally lowered the conscription age all the way to 18 now. Oh, I haven't seen that unless it was today. Um, no, no, no. I thought I had heard that last week. No, I I don't believe so. They may have moved it for people that have served previously. There's little bits and pieces, but as far as I still believe it's 25. Um, so I shouldn't have brought that up. I did not read that at or something. I I 2:12:06 Oh, no. I just saw that on my phone. You do see this that it's like if if you have served previously, you may be conscripted down to 18. So, that's where that is coming from, I'd guess. So, you're not actually incorrect. Um but uh we do know that the Ukrainian manpower problem is growing more and more severe daily. Like it is it's too it's it's too obvious to hide now. It's catastrophic. Um and this is a traditional warfare. And what I say traditional warfare I always use and you've probably heard me use this analogy. It's it's bankruptcy. It's bankruptcy from gambling. that when you gamble and eventually go bankrupt from it is it's little by little and then all at once and you've lost your house and you're homeless that you don't you you don't lose your house and your wife and your kids and your car. You it doesn't like oh you lose one and then you lose no you fall off a [ __ ] cliff and that is how attritional warfare works. it's bankruptcy that it's little. You don't really notice it. Next thing 2:13:06 you fall off a [ __ ] cliff. And what I've said is the European policy can't let that cliff fall because if that cliff falls and you can't stop it, the Russians won't stop at the fraud blasters. You need to [ __ ] stop it either militarily or diplomatically before Ukraine falls off a cliff. And we are getting closer and closer to that cliff drop. Absolutely. And it'll be and this is attritional warfare. The reason attritional warfare works well is because the nature of savagery of attrition. Okay. The best example, I guess, is World War II with the Germans occupying France and having a lot of resistance because they took it very quickly and the Soviets taking Berlin because they took it very [ __ ] slowly and killed [ __ ] everyone. This is where attritional nature of war works for the Russians because it's [ __ ] brutal. is you kill everyone because you're moving forward at a, you know, half mile a day. You don't get pockets of resistance behind the line because 2:14:08 people flee. Like the pro- Ukrainians in it town flee. The pro-Russians are left behind or a lot of the civilians die because the town's getting bombed to [ __ ] by the Russians. And then once the Russians take it, the Ukrainians bomb it to [ __ ] And you don't end up with troops or resistance on the front. So why do you think we don't see that much internal resistance in the occupied territories? This is where attritional warfare I hate attritional warfare because it's [ __ ] it's [ __ ] because everyone [ __ ] dies. But this is where it works is you don't get then pockets of resistance cuz everyone's [ __ ] dead. Those that would resist have been killed. This is where if you wanted Afghanistan to not end up like we do, you don't go in there and do maneuver warfare operations and target the Taliban here, target. No, no, no. We move from one border through the nation and kill every one who gives any resistance. That's how you win win like that without pockets resistance and hand back to the Taliban. Iran would have to do the same [ __ ] thing or otherwise it'll end up catastrophic and we can't do that anyway. Um and that's where attritional warfare became the Russia's number one 2:15:09 goal is not territory because they go we'll take the territory through attrition. We'll trip the forces down. This is where Russia is more happy to move rearwoods than Ukraine is. Ukraine doesn't want to move rearwards like do a withdrawal even if it's tactically the right move because their number one goal is territory. Russia's number one goal is attrition. So Russia will happily like right now this area between what I call the Pishani front which meets then a river and a front line coming in. Then Russia's developed this area but it's got a waterway. So there's a 10 km gap which is 6 milesi to move through. And what I've said is the Russians have no want at all to close that gap because Ukraine is moving troops through that gap and they just want to trick you. They've created a killbox in that gap. They'll leave that gap open. What we've seen, they haven't moved at all to close that gap. And what we've actually seen is Ukraine then in the envelopment have advances and everyone's going cuz you no, the Russians are withdrawing in there to draw more of your shooting because they want to attract you. This is the problem when you've got different 2:16:09 goals. Russia want to destroy Ukraine's capability. Ukraine want to take back their territory. And the problem is by taking back territory, you actually increase their goal of attrition. This is why it's so [ __ ] difficult. And this is where if you're dealing with a quarter, a third of the population to [ __ ] pushing [ __ ] uphill. Um, and Russian and the Ukrainians have no hope, right, of changing their strategy to just doing attrition themselves and trying to destroy the Russian army itself because that won't work cuz they're just right. This so for the land the best if your goal No, so I somewhat disagree. If your goal was survival of the state regardless of the borders, okay, problem is the problem that I've seen in Ukraine is that all the statesmen and all the official everyone has pushed on 1991 borders. What what they should have done and this you know it's easy for me to sit here and say but if they said our goal is the survival of the state and 2:17:11 that is victory. Okay, victory for Ukraine and this war in my opinion if Ukraine survive in and remain the capital of Ke. That's a win for Ukraine. It may also be a win for Russia cuz they take some areas. But if you go up against a country four times your [ __ ] size and survive in any way, that should be a victory. The problem is the goalpost Ukraine has put is 1991 borders. Any inch less is a loss. So they're now not willing to do what would be the correct strategy of withdrawing a trick to increase cost of the Russians. They'll say they're doing it, but they're not. You hear guys all the time on the front line saying, "We need to withdraw and we can't. We're not allowed to withdraw." Okay, but so now back to my earlier question. When they go off the cliff and the Ukrainian army finally breaks, are the Russians going to are they going to take I can never say it right. Deeper Prov. Yes, there you go. that one which is for everyone that's between Kiev and the Dawnbass 2:18:12 and still predominantly Russian speakers and so if we're taking all this we can't just leave them behind right so this this is the problem same thing with Odessa and and the southern coast there is when it's that easy especially once assuming that at some point in the next year or whatever the Ukrainian military finally falls apart then just how big of an appetite does Moscow have then do you think so let's step back The reason Putin we s actually I sort of missed a question there um about why is Trump having a problem ending this war because Putin smells blood in the water because Putin Russia actually Russia is incredibly experienced at attritional warfare protracted warfare. Look at how the Russians fought Napoleon. Look at how the Soviets fought the Nazis. That is catastrophic initial loss, recovery, attrition protraction. That is like Russian warfare [ __ ] 101. And 2:19:12 Ukraine, I tell you, [ __ ] it follows their history of catastrophic initial loss, two years of recovery, massive attrition on the front line. Everyone thought they failed. Napoleon thought they'd failed. Hitler thought they' failed that, oh, there's no way they can recover from these loss. We said the same [ __ ] thing and they've recovered from the loss. Okay, so the reason Trump is having no luck is because Putin smells blood in the water and he's going, "Hang on, but we get the bankruptcy idea and we know Ukraine themselves complaining about not having enough people and that you're not giving weapons. Why would we negotiate now? Why would why would you?" So, I'll ask you this question, just a yes or no. Will Russia be in a better position on the battlefield in 6 months than they are today? Okay, if your answer is yes to that question, why would he negotiate? That was the way I framed it was Trump just got inaugurated at the wrong time to end this thing. Right. It's just he wants to I I think he's really sincere about it. But Putin is going, "No, I'm Why would I? He'll go he'll go he I will, but I want all of that. Oh, I will, but I'll take these." 2:20:12 In fact, that was his demand, right? Was the Ukrainians have to withdraw entirely from Kers and Zaproia and Donesk, which they're never going to do, of course. Right. Yeah. But it is either you they do it or we'll take it. Yeah. And that that's the way it is. And the high when we should have got the Russians was when Ukraine was having success at the end of 22. That was the point we should have gone now we this is where we go hey Russia we want to negotiate because you're having problems and you're going to you're going to either spend another [ __ ] which is the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff versus the former Mike Mullen and then the then currently Mark Millie said hey this is as good as it gets. Let's quit while you boys are only this far behind and not more. And then you know the we all knew this at the time. I don't know exactly how we knew or we just guessed but the um the times later confirmed and they did a story called Secretary of War about Anthony Blinken and it was about how the State Department weenies overruled the generals and said these army guys don't know what they're talking about. Ukraine 2:21:12 can win. So this is one of the biggest problem in command everywhere is you cannot let your state propaganda influence command and this is a huge problem is you and Ukraine and America and whoever is involved in this side they're starting to sort of believe their own Kool-Aid state propaganda is super important optics optics are so important in war especially in democratic states okay but what you need is you need your commanders you need them to be able to see through their own optic okay you can't have them drinking the Kool-Aid, too. So, you want the public to be believing your [ __ ] Okay? But you need your commanders to go, "Yeah, yeah, okay. We know the public believe that, but this is what we're doing." So, okay, the public believe Ukraine's going to win. So, we'll keep that going. We keep that propaganda. So, they'll keep paying taxes and fund 100 billion dollars more. The commanders, they they need to go, "Look, we know they're not going to have victory on the battlefield. So, that hundred billion, we're going to spend to trick the Russians and get into a position to stabilize it." problem is the command especially in Ukraine they 2:22:14 started believing their own propaganda of ah sweet we are going to have military success victory here and optics propaganda drove command and then command failed uh and and that is that is what we have seen and Kursk is a great example of this there's many other areas that are great example of that you can't believe your own [ __ ] and you know that one of the biggest issues here you cannot criticize Ukraine at all you can't criticize any tactics any strategy politics, nothing. If you criticize it, you are Vladimir Putin's best mate. The problem is if you get rid of any criticism, then why would why would they not run with the optics of the day? That's the problem. Um, back to if the falls off a cliff, what then occurs? Well, it was to me the biggest thing we can't let the Russians do is Soviet doctrine of deep maneuver warfare where they have armored vehicles maneuvering under artillery fire deep you know art three 30 km you know um what's that 20 mi deep say can't let that happen that's 2:23:17 catastrophic because once they once they reintroduce maneuver into the battlefield problem there's no maneuver at the moment really but we believe NATO to um NATO chief Mark Root where he's saying Russia has 3,000 tanks sitting there. It looks like they want to reintroduce armored maneuver warfare into the battlefield but are waiting for the right time. Russia's basically not using [ __ ] tanks on the battlefield right now. But it's still producing a [ __ ] shitload of tanks and armored vehicles and people are going that's weird. Why aren't they using them? Because at this point in time it makes no sense to have tanks on the front line due to the nature and saturation of drones and artillery etc. But if you can reintroduce maneuver, warfare, armor, deep maneuver, it makes sense. So it looks like they're waiting for that drop and then they'll start moving. And we don't have negotiating power at that point. If they the only piece we have at that point is physical barriers. Okay? And the physical barrier Ukraine doesn't have great mountain ranges or an inland 2:24:18 sea. What it has is the Nebra River. And this is where many people, especially people behind the scenes, have said the the war will continue until it meets something that it cannot cross. And that people are saying it could go all the way to the Nepa River and split Ukraine in half. What would be catastrophic, it would be significantly worse than the deal that's on the table, but you only have cards, the cards in your hand are only worth anything if you play them. And currently we are not playing any of the cards that Ukraine actually has. Um, which it does have cards on the table. And we, yeah, that's the biggest thing I say is if we can't let the Russians have a breakthrough. Um, when I say we can't, I'm meaning like the Western policy. If we want Ukraine to walk away from this, um, and it's looking daily, I look at the map thinking this could be any day. this falls off a cliff and next thing you have, you know, Russia's makes, you know, say 20 km squares a day. What we 2:25:19 can't do, you think it's hard to get them to negotiate now. What if they're making 200 a day? What if what if what if they start having like real success in going to go, "Fuck your [ __ ] your negotiations. They already don't want it." And they they didn't want negotiations when they bogged down in a traditional war. If they reintroduce maneuver into the battlefield, they just smell blood, smell blood, smell blood. Okay. So if my worst sort of hypothetical were to follow here and they decide we want, we want everything east of the river, we want the whole southern coast all the way to Transnistria and we're going to lead this tiny little rump Ukraine with its capital in Lviv uh or what have you, then they've created a new set of problems for themselves then because now they have they used to have a country where half the people were sort of favored Russia. Now they have a country where nobody does anymore on their border. um and where the worst kind of right-wing nationalists and Andrew Bletki and his Nazi buddies are going to be war heroes at the end of this thing from the third separate infantry division and all that. So now now 2:26:20 they're going to have a a rump Ukraine run by the radical right and then the question will be whether they want to just go ahead and keep going and just scatter those people to the winds and march all the way to Poland or what the thing is because if you if you look at that let's say that they take the whole southern coast all this and declare victory. Yeah. Now they got a brand new problem in whatever you call the rump Ukrainian state. This this is the nature of a traditional war though is that those those resistance elements like your your far rightwing elements and this and that they're the ones also fighting too like like your your original as of brigade that's now the third assault. Most of those hardcore guys in the beginning, they're dead or captured, right? Like like this this goes back to why the Russians in history will go actually attritional nature of war was the better option there long term. I'm talking after postwar attrition. So, you know, a couple of decades on because they'll go 2:27:21 if we won by maneuver. If the Russians won on their original plan of you coming into Kev and coming out to Hersan and maneuvering their way around the battlefield and you know uh blockading areas and taking it then yeah Russia would have had resistance [ __ ] everywhere. But the way they're fighting by grinding is no one's no one's volunteering to fight in Ukraine. Okay. So the only the new soldiers by you want say no one very few are volunteering at this point. So they're all conscription. Well, if if someone hasn't volunteered in three and a half years of war, do you really think they're going to be resistance after the war? No. What you want is you kill everyone who would be resistant. So your young nationalistic men all are dead. This why there was no Nazi resistance after the [ __ ] killed everyone who's going to be resistance on mass at least I should say. And and this is why a traditional nature of war you won't end up with if the Russians continue um with that amount of resistance. So you end up with this 2:28:25 grind forward. All those passionate young guys, nationalistic, whatever you want to say. Yeah. They end up dead or captured. Although all the forests and swamps are in the west of the country, right? So there's at least the west. I don't think the Russians want to take the west of the country. Like No, but that's what I'm saying though is they're going to have it left and then what though, right? Cuz you could still have insurgencies based out of there. Yeah. you still have you will you will you're probably going to have insurgency but then I I have even speculated the idea that I think NATO will deploy troops into what's left of Ukraine to um try and clear up insurgency. Um I've floated this idea of let's say the war ends tomorrow along the lines that we've currently got. Okay, these what happens in war is you don't redradicalize elements, you further radicalize elements. That every single Hamas killer, sorry, every single Hamas soldier that Israel has killed has radicalized two or three either within Gaza or around the world. Okay, that's 2:29:26 what happens. You radicalize, especially when we're talking insurgency. Do you really think that NATO or the EU is going to keep that on their border with these radical elements that have been armed when there's now when there's now anti-western rhetoric in this too? Yeah. So this is this is what I floated is I was going to say although just footnote here the CIA backed the Nazis in Ukraine in the Carpathian Mountains and through 1959 before they finally gave that up and knowing that they were going to lose all along but but we this is you know and this was Kruef's great victory that helped propel him to succeed Stalin was when he had finished and how many times do we end up fighting someone at some point that we have like how often do we end up fighting an enemy of which we have funded? Oh, all the time, decades down the line. So, this is what I'm saying is Bill Hicks joked 30 years ago about that. I have I I've said this before and I'll say I'll say it again is if if the line say the war ended tomorrow, Russia goes, let's pause along these lines. Okay. 2:30:27 Okay. And then Ukraine, we want Ukraine in the EU. We want Ukraine in NATO. Let's say Russia agrees to that. Let's just go they agree. Is Ukraine in its current state going to be allowed with the militarization and radicalization of a of a large um amount of people in the country into those? No. Because there's going to be so these extremist groups, let's take let's just just take one that is a nationalistic element. Yes, they have anti-Russian rhetoric, but they also are developing huge anti-western rhetoric due to the west dragging their feet. Yeah, as we said earlier in the podcast, people are a reflection of what's around them. Well, I could honestly see a peacekeeping force or peacekeeping deploying into Ukraine from NATO to say, well, you can join NATO, but you can't have this. And I think that we could see um Ukrainian military or Western military deployed to to to get rid of some of these elements because these elements are incredibly powerful now. These aren't rag tag insurgents with, 2:31:29 you know, a couple of AKs and maybe a couple of stingers. No, no, no. These guys have fought for 3 years. They're hardened [ __ ] warriors who have experience in conventional warfare and they well, there's few things. They're very anti-Russian, but they're very anti-Western modernity as well. So, it's a [ __ ] weird mix. Um, and Ukrainian government and Ukrainian population, the majority of Ukraine's population will be against them holding up them into the EU or NATO, too. So, you know, if you're you and me, say if we're sitting in Kev and we're just regular blo we would go, hey, those those guys, yeah, they were heroes when they were fighting Russia for us. But now that unit is stopping us joining NATO or the EU. Yeah, we need to [ __ ] get rid of that unit whether by one means or another. Yeah, it's that's going to be a [ __ ] no one very few people are actually considering what that looks like after the war with these radical elements because a lot of these ele they don't want to exist it's going to 2:32:30 get it's going to even when the guns the Russian guns fall silent it's going to get messy on the other side of that with clearing we we we it's very easy to turn a blind eye to a unit that's fighting on your Even if they're not fighting back against you, if they are stopping movement towards a coalition of some point or whatever, it's going to be a problem. Um, it's going to be a real problem. Yeah. All right. I think we should leave it here. We're two and a half hours. I want to make sure that people want to listen to. Thanks for having me. And this has been so great. Um, and I hope we can continue this uh over the wires from the other side of the planet. when you go back home. Can we wrap up on uh just a quick question of how is your health doing? I know people who care about you care very much to know about the latest. Uh so no more recent update. I had an MRI scan about four weeks ago uh that showed no changes on the tumor, which is 2:33:30 good. For those who are unaware, I have a brain tumor. Uh that's the scar down my [ __ ] head. It was from a biopsy. Uh and I'm on chemotherapy at the moment. Um I've been off for a couple of weeks now. Uh, and then I have two more rounds of chemo, then another scan. And we're hoping to see the problem with the tumor is the tumor is just all mixed in with brain, good brain matter. What we want the chemo to do is really separate that so they can start removing parts without having um neurological deficit because that right now the tumor and my um motor strip that controls my right arm, it that's just all as one. Um so it's too dangerous for them to remove. The problem is with a tumor like this is it also even if they cut it all out it will still grow back and sometimes grows back uh uh you know higher grade. So there's a lot of problems with anything there of and there's even discussion between my surgeons being like well are we better off removing it because it can come back like these can almost have like a uh intelligence of their own. They're a real pain. Uh but my health 2:34:30 realistically is is very good. Um taking all things into account um is good. So, I can continue working. You I get a bit of brain fog from the chemo and whatever. Um, so I lose track of bit of conversation stuff here and there, but otherwise uh pretty good and I can work through it and go from there in the States for a couple of weeks for a wedding and hanging out with you and everything. That's great. Well, that's awesome, man. Man, I sure I'm happy to have you here. I'm glad to hear that you're hanging in there and and I think you said too that he's in a in a video and you told me earlier today, too, right? That the the latest scan showed that it was shrinking a little bit. Look, by everyone's eyes who have looked at it, it looks like it's shrinking. Uh, and speaking to my oncologist, he said it probably has shrunk a little bit, but some of the surgeons won't say that unless it's had a measurable. It needs to be more than a millimeter or something before they can say that. Um, but you know, by any anyone else's eyes, it looks like there's less pressure on the surrounding tissue. So, we'll see. We'll see. Hang in there. Hang in there, buddy. All right. 2:35:31 Easy. Thank you, brother. All right. Thank you. Thanks for listening to the Scott Horton Show, which can be heard on APS Radio News at scottorton.org, scott hortonshow.com, and the Libertarian Institute at libertarianinstitute.org.
